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Impressions from Comdex
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November 21, 1996: 9:31 p.m. ET
The Internet takes the lead; Andy Grove and Bill Gates look ahead
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LAS VEGAS (CNNfn) - Welcome to the lunacy they call COMDEX, the PC industry's annual gathering. More than 200,000 attendees saw some 10,000 products introduced this week. That's about 250 an hour.
The subtext of the entire week was the big decision facing the marketplace: the PC or the network computer.
While COMDEX is usually thought of as a PC show, the Internet flavor is pervasive. About 30% of the more than 2,000 exhibitors are in the Internet business, and the remaining 70% are plotting their strategies.
Nonetheless, this show remains a celebration of the personal computer and its still emerging role in information and entertainment architectures. To emphasize this point, Intel's CEO Andy Grove gave the keynote presentation Monday, celebrating the 25th anniversary of the first microprocessor, Intel's 4004.
It's truly awesome to reflect on how far this industry has come. Reflecting back on the 4004, Grove noted that it had 2,300 transistors and operated at 50,000 instructions per second.
On stage, Grove had a Pentium Pro system, with its 5.5 million transistors and 400 million instructions per second. In fact, this performance exceeds Grove's projections made at COMDEX in 1989. (How refreshing. Someone actually overdelivering on expectations!) And thinking ahead 25 years, Grove foresaw a 2011 microprocessor with 1 billion transistors, operating at clock speeds of 10 gigahertz and 100,000 MIPS.
Where will this lead the PC? While playing both sides of the PC vs. network computer battle, Grove clearly came down on the side of a bright future for the full-fledged personal computer. In fact, Grove threw down the gauntlet to the consumer electronics industry, stating that we're "in a war for eyeballs."
While PC shipments are now on a par with televisions and will surpass them going forward, Grove noted that the real parameter is hours and that for the PC to win the war, it will have to deliver "irresistible and compelling features."
Grove expects the PC to beat the TV with an interactive lifelike 3-D experience.
Taking a radically different approach, Microsoft's Bill Gates gave an almost paternalistic keynote on Tuesday. Eschewing the almost obligatory product demonstrations, Gates gave perhaps the most comfortable presentation I have ever seen him give.
Chatting amiably with the overflow audience of more than 7,000 in the Aladdin Theater and countless more in satellite locations, Gates, dressed casually in a sweater, attempted to portray Microsoft as the "senior statesman" and as the safe choice ("No one ever got fired for buying Microsoft," he said.).
Interspersing his comments with several humorous videos, Gates predicted the PC will remain the desktop device of choice.
Yet, one couldn't help but walk out of the hall noticing the absence of excitement in the audience.
Then again, it's almost impossible to walk around Las Vegas this week and miss Microsoft's products and message.
It's fascinating to watch Microsoft attempt to transform itself before our eyes. From the upstart PC company, it's now trying to cement its position as industry leader by portraying itself as the mature industry spokesperson, offering customers and developers alike the safest path to the Internet.
Gates even went as far as to say that the Internet was "always part of the vision." He further derided his competition, noting that he thought the current trend toward server-centric computing was motivated not by user demand but by vendors, like Sun.
Gates also attacked his software competition by asking rhetorically what Java had to offer, besides incompatibility.
My lasting impression, however, was of a Microsoft trying to almost trivialize the revolutionary shift caused by the Internet.
-- Jonathan Yarmis, Gartner Group
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