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The flip side of good times
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June 6, 1997: 8:52 a.m. ET
Experts say workers shouldn't be lulled by the hot U.S. job market
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) -- With U.S. unemployment at its lowest levels in nearly 24 years and the bullish economy creating jobs at a dizzying pace, it's easy to understand why the workforce might be pretty confident.
But employment experts warn that people shouldn't be lulled by the robust job market, even if they are fielding offers from competing companies.
"People are becoming too complacent," said Stephen Viscusi, a jobs expert who heads Viscusi Group, an executive-search firm in New York. "They're becoming so secure about their jobs that they're not going to be prepared for a change in the economy."
Consider what happened the last time the job market roared in the 1980s. The unemployment rate bottomed out at 5.3 percent in 1989, but then the recession pushed the rate to 5.6 percent in 1990, 6.8 percent in 1991, and a high of 7.5 percent in 1992, according to Labor Department statistics.
Although Labor reported Friday that the jobless rate slipped to 4.8 percent in May, John Sargent, an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said the business cycle will inevitably start chugging in the other direction at some point.
"It's a very long expansion period we've been in, but sooner or later there will be a recession," Sargent said. "Hopefully it will be a mild one, but sooner or later there will be a slowdown. Something is going to happen."
So even though there's a severe crunch for qualified workers in technology and other fields right now, Viscusi and other analysts warn the job market could change at any time.
That means people shouldn't neglect career development.
"You have to have as many balls up in the air as possible," recommended John Challenger, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., a Chicago-based employment firm that tracks workplace trends. "In this day and age, you have to be more of a free agent than an indentured servant."
Challenger said the days when a person joined a big firm like General Motors and stayed for his entire career are gone.
"No company or boss can promise you the company will remain the same (forever)," Challenger said. "You have to realize you may be back in the job market at any time."
Even someone lured to a competing company with a fat bonus and other perks should be careful, Challenger said. The competitor might just be trying to find out what the other company is up to -- or just trying to inflict damage on a rival firm. In either case, that employee could be out of a job in a year or two, he said.
"Trust your instincts, and talk with people in the organization and people in the industry," Challenger said. What appears to be a golden offer could be a land mine: the company could have a "revolving door," a tyrannical CEO or an entrenched 'Old Guard' that is resistant to change.
Challenger recommends everyone always spend 5 to 10 percent of their time cultivating ties with professional and industry groups, talking to search firms and revising their resumes.
Viscusi suggests people not take anything for granted in their jobs. His advice: Come up with new ideas, be on time for work, don't use a lot of sick days and don't leave the office at 5:01 p.m.
"It means putting in the extra effort," Viscusi said. "You have to constantly be working to make yourself more valuable."
-- Martine Costello
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