NEW YORK (CNNfn)
- Ten years ago, the U.S. stock market experienced its worst crash in history
when the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 508 points in one day.
John Gutfreund, former chairman
and CEO of Salomon Brothers, and Frederick Joseph, former chairman and
CEO of Drexel Burnham Lambert, are veterans of that dark day on Wall Street.
They appeared on CNN's "Moneyline
with Lou Dobbs" to shed some light on what happened on Oct. 19, 1987,
and on whether it could happen again.
The following is a transcript
of the interview.
JOHN GUTFREUND: Nice
to be here.
FREDERICK JOSEPH: Thanks,
Lou.
LOU DOBBS: Let me ask
you, that day.
GUTFREUND: Sure. The
first thing was, it was very active. New ground. I think the concern from
the outside was very great, and I think regulators -- both in the Federal
Reserve operating basically through the banks after they instructed them,
and then the administration -- were very interested. I think that the White
House was totally involved. Our concern was that business keep going and
that we not be sidetracked and stopped all of the sudden. We thought that
would be very bad.
DOBBS: Fred?
JOSEPH: I agree with
John's comments. You wanted -- we were...in new ground. We were trading
new ground, and we were worrying about the implications, the possibility
of margin calls for the clients that had bought on -- had borrowed to buy
stocks. The Fed announced that they'd be a lender of last resort, and I
think that was a calming influence, and I agree with John that the administration
was constructively involved.
DOBBS: Constructively
involved.
JOSEPH: Constructively.
DOBBS: And were they
literally on the phone with you hour by hour as this market began to deteriorate?
JOSEPH: Yes.
GUTFREUND: They were,
and the reason was that their information source was not dependent, with
due deference, to what they get off the floor of the exchange. They needed
to know the flow. Were institutions buying? Selling? What was going on?
Frankly, the specialist system, which is the heart of the stock exchange,
needed assistance, and we, the upstairs firms, offered that assistance
with the encouragement and support of the banking system.
DOBBS: Now, how about
concerned? They -- you know, it built up the positions and -- thought this
would be a normal trading day. Everyone knew that the market was going
to break on the opening, and at first, it was buying opportunities, and
then they suddenly woke up to the fact that it wasn't just 200, it wasn't
300, it wasn't 400, it kept going, and they hauled back, and it took some
encouragement from the senior management in all the firms for them to keep
answering the phone, "We're still in business, keep working."
DOBBS: The same at
Salomon?
GUTFREUND: Oh, it was
our reputation. Granted, you might not like the price you'd hear from us,
but we were there.
DOBBS: You were there.
Now you talk about what -- the administration, obviously, concerned as
we reported it that day. Internally, what were your innermost thoughts?
Did you feel you were in control?
GUTFREUND: I thought
it was kind of interesting and fun. Was I in control? No, the traders were
in control, but I'm there to support them. That was my job, but I knew
that -- to use a dreadful -- water seeks it own level, but we knew the
market had gone a little farther than it should have. This was a very interesting
opportunity. Unfortunately, most of us, because of liquidity concerns,
couldn't take greater advantage. We went into the day with positions, and
at the end of the day, we probably had the same or larger positions, but
with a much-lower price level. So we had a markdown problem.
DOBBS: No fear in Fred
Joseph that day?
JOSEPH: Perhaps we
were too busy to be fearful, and I think most of us had been in the business
long enough to understand markets fluctuate, they'll overdo what they're
doing, but there is a viable market. There were values. They'd come back.
They'd come back to a fair level.
DOBBS: Well, this market
since 1987 has come back and -- has it ever come back. The question, obviously,
is, with your perspective and your experience, could it happen again? We're
hearing it time and time again.
GUTFREUND: Yes, it
could. Obviously, it's possible. Is it probable? I think not, because of
a couple of things. No. 1, the framework is different. You have -- institutions
dominate the investing pattern. Institutions, even if they chose to, couldn't
liquidate, so fundamentally they'd probably have to be buyers on a scale
down. The only caveat is they would be buyers of the high-grade stocks
on the way down. The high specs -- they're very tricky, and I think they
could go from 50 to 4.
DOBBS: Fred?
JOSEPH: I think what
they do is they slow the crash down, and I think, in many ways, this market
is sort of Rollerblading on a balancing board, and if it goes off on one
side, you get deflationary fears, you could really see some panic selling,
and if you suddenly get an expectation that inflation and interest rates
are picking up, you could get a very sharp reaction. As you said at the
opening of the show, the equivalent market break is almost 2,000 points.
Panic could set in again. I think at some point it will.
GUTFREUND: The problem
in my mind with that is that the institutions now are 90, 95 percent of
the market. They have a vested interest. They also have enormous inflows.
A turn on that just can't happen that quickly. Now I don't think psychologically
it means people are with due deference to -- the same age as you and I,
maybe Lou - but they're not our age, and I don't think that they would
be prepared for the kind of precipitous decline you and I might anticipate.
JOSEPH: I think they
wouldn't be prepared, and that's why you could see it.
DOBBS: Well, I think
we're on the verge of making another market, and in that case a healthy
market. Gentlemen, it's good to have you with us. Thanks for being with
us .
GUTFREUND: Thank you.
DOBBS: John Gutfreund
and Fred Joseph.
JOSEPH: Nice to be
here.
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