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Markets & Stocks
Bond flows up Brazil stream
January 22, 1999: 9:15 a.m. ET

Rickety Bovespa index and Brazilian real revive a safe-haven bid of U.S. Treasurys
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The continuing eddy of concern about emerging markets gave a lift to U.S. Treasury issues Friday, as bonds drew favor from investors looking for calmer waters.
     Shortly after 9 a.m. ET, the 30-year benchmark Treasury issue was up 27/32 in price at 102-18/32, with the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, at 5.08 percent.
     The long bond, whose so-called "flight to quality" lure had been relegated somewhat to the back-burner in recent months due to stock market gains in the United States, have gotten an injection from turmoil overseas.
     With Brazil's real tumbling Thursday and early Friday -- causing the central bank to prop up the troubled unit despite its recent pledge not to intervene in currency markets -- jittery investors are turning back to fixed-income securities and the stable returns they offer.
     The real hit as low as 1.73 to the dollar Friday morning, before recovering to 1.70. Brazil's Bovespa stock index was down 1.9 percent to 7,185 in late morning trade there.
     Fellow emerging market China, which has been rock-solid in its defense of its own yuan, has come under mounting suspicion that it may buckle to currency pressures and devalue. But officials there insist a devaluation is not on the way.
     A possible Chinese devaluation could destabilize an already rickety Japan, which is struggling to come out of recession, and pound its yen. The Japanese unit, which had been on an upward climb over the past month, was recently quoted at 114.18 to the dollar.
     In Europe, where stocks were yanked down by the emerging market turmoil, the new euro currency slipped to $1.1585.
     Pressure from emerging markets could weigh again on U.S. stocks, after the Dow industrials shed nearly 72 points Thursday. That could lift bonds, at least in the short term, one analyst said.
     "After the market sells off, like you saw [Thursday], you want to see the bond market rising, because what it tells you is that money is not leaving the financial system," said Ronald Hill, a partner at Brown Brothers Harriman.
     "It just goes from the bond pocket to the equity pocket, and it doesn't often stay there for long, 'cause the equity pocket just comes right back," he added.
     Based on S&P Futures trading, the Dow appeared headed for a lower opening Friday. Back to top

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