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Economic indicators higher
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February 2, 1999: 11:13 a.m. ET
Index up 0.3 pct. in December; imminent recession seen as 'unlikely'
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The leading economic indicators for December matched estimates and pointed to a healthy economy, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The composite index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3 percent. The index increased 0.5 percent in November, revised down from 0.6, and 0.1 percent in October.
"This indicates there is almost no chance of a recession for the first half of 1999 and possibly even longer," said Michael Boldin, senior economist at the Conference Board.
The coincident index was up 0.3 percent, showing aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than the gross domestic product's rise of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998.
Taken together, the composite indexes and their components "show a healthy economy" and the leading indicators "point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record," the report states.
The report says there is "no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability."
Six of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index rose in December. The most significant increases were the money supply in 1992 dollars, stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods and materials.
The report said the most significant negative contributors to the composite leading index in December were average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance and vendor performance.
The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond was down 18/32 Tuesday to yield 5.22 percent.
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Conference Board
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