NEW YORK (CNNfn) -Treasury bond prices rose for the fourth straight session Monday, lifted by a strengthening dollar, which gained against the yen for the third time in three days.
But with no economic indicators on tap Monday, and no Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak, traders see little news ahead to spark much buying and selling. The session could also be a quiet one, with some market participants out for the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur.
Just before 9:15 a.m. ET, the price of the 30-year benchmark treasury bond rose 8/32 to 101-7/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to the price, fell to 6.03 percent from 6.05 Friday.
The four-day rise in bond prices has paralleled gains in the dollar. Since Thursday, the U.S. currency has moved off a three-and-a-half year low versus the yen on the belief that the Japanese government will continue stepping in to stop its currency's rise.
The dollar's recovery has helped Treasurys as overseas investors, who hold about a third of Treasury debt, are less prone to sell government securities to buy yen-denominated investments. Further, a rising dollar has eased fears that more expensive imports will spark inflation, which erodes the value of a bond's fixed income payments.
Just before 9:15 a.m ET, the dollar rose to 107.79 yen, up from 107.31 Friday, a 0.43 percent gain in the dollar's value. The dollar also climbed against the euro. Just before 9:15 a.m. ET, it cost $1.0400 to buy one euro compared to $1.0490 Friday, a 0.10 percent rise in the dollar's value.
Narrow trading range seen
A series of conflicting economic data, traders say, should keep bonds stuck in a tight range. Consumer prices, producer prices and employment data have all come in weaker than expected. These figures, with their suggestion that inflation remains tame, are seen as lessening the chances the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its next meeting Oct. 5.
On the other hand, recent reports have shown strength in retail sales, housing, manufacturing and factory orders.
Ahead, the week holds no major economic indicators. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will release July's trade numbers. Analysts polled by Reuters anticipate the trade deficit narrowed to $23.6 billion from $24.6 billion in June.
On Wednesday, investors will pore over the "beige book" -- a compilation of economic observations compiled by the Fed's 12 regional banks. Fed officials will use the report as a guideline for discussions at their Oct. 5 meeting.
Already, Fed officials twice this summer raised short-term interest rates a quarter-point to slow the economy and ensure inflation stays subdued.
Dollar in close-up
Since touching a peak of 124.75 yen in mid-May, the U.S. currency has slid about 15 percent as investors sensing the Japanese economy is finally about to prosper poured money into yen-denominated investments, particularly Japanese stocks.
But the dollar's resurgence over the last three session's could ease worries on both sides of the Pacific. Japan has feared that its rebounding currency could make exports tougher to sell, slowing the nation's economic recovery. United States officials, meanwhile, have fretted that a climbing yen will lead to a rise in import prices, exacerbating inflation.
"At this point, if the yen rises further, it's going to undermine the Japanese economy, and, as a result of that, both Japan and the U.S., for a different reason, would like to see the yen stable at these levels or a little bit higher," said David Horner, senior financial strategist at Merrill Lynch.
A big fall in the dollar, Horner said, could lead to investor flight from U.S. securities and a rise in import prices, exacerbating inflation..
|