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The Briefcase Barometer
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November 16, 1999: 9:16 a.m. ET
Size of Greenspan's case better than a crystal ball, some Fed watchers say
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Economists tired of reading tea leaves have found a more arcane way to predict the future; the size of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's satchel.
Those on the lookout for Greenspan's entree into the closed-door, rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting say a bulky suitcase foretells a hike in interest rates, as Greenspan will haul along copious notes to back up his decision. Others say a lack of heft signal that rates will remain just where they are.
While wage boosts and consumer prices have remained within reasonable limits, the labor market continues to show strong numbers and commodity and import prices are on the rise, so a November hike has been anticipated by some.
Leading economic indicators aside, many analysts have an enduring interest in leather - the number of eyes gauging the bulk of Greenspan's briefcase Tuesday may be an eye-opening number.
As Greenspan walked into Tuesday's FOMC meeting, his briefcase was about as neutral as his casual greeting to Fed watchers. Does size really matter? With the FOMC's announcement later Tuesday, economists will be able to justify -- or to deride -- this particular spectator sport. 
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