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Markets & Stocks
Treasurys move higher
March 28, 2000: 4:34 p.m. ET

Market-friendly report lifts prices; Cohen's shift in allocation also helps
By Staff Writer Jill Bebar
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Treasury prices ended slightly higher Tuesday, with 30-year bonds recovering from their lows after a report showed a greater-than-expected decline in U.S. consumer confidence.
    "The retracement in consumer confidence points to a little bit of a slowdown in the economy, which is perhaps what traders were wishing for," said Richard Yamarone, senior economist at Argus Research Corp.
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    Shortly before 3 p.m. ET, the bond fell 7/32 of a point to 103-18/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to its price, rose to 5.99 percent from 5.98 percent Monday. Ten-year Treasury notes gained 4/32 to 102-12/32, their yield falling to 6.17 percent from 6.20 percent Monday
    In economic news, consumer confidence fell to 136.7 in March from a revised 140.8 in February, according to the Conference Board. The figure was well below Wall Street forecasts of 140.0. Analysts attributed the decline to a volatile stock market, notably the sharp decline in the Dow at that time.
    But Jay Feldman, economist at Credit Suisse First Boston, said although the consumer confidence report showed a "noticeable decline," it was too early to get carried away with slowdown scenarios. He noted the jobs market and stocks are better gauges for measuring consumer spending.
    The Federal Reserve has hiked short-term interest rates five times since June, each time by a quarter-point in a "gradualist" manner, in order to slow the economy and keep inflation at bay.
    Yet consumer spending remains strong, and analysts forecast the central bank will boost rates again by at least one-quarter point when it meets again May 16.
    
Cohen's shift in allocation jolts the markets

    Also providing support to Treasurys was news that influential strategist Abby Joseph Cohen cut the stock allocation in her model portfolio to 65 percent from 70 percent.
    Cohen said in a report she was shifting the weighting of the portfolio to shorter-term issues, such as two-year notes, from longer-dated securities, such as 30-year bonds.
    The announcement, which came early in the session, created volatility amid reports traders were selling bonds to buy shorter maturities, a so-called "unwinding of a flattener."
    Elsewhere, global financial markets awaited the outcome of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting on oil production quotas. The OPEC members met for a second day in Vienna, Austria. Analysts expect the ministers to increase production by 1.7 million barrels per day in order to stabilize prices.
    Oil prices have tripled in the U.S. since OPEC dramatically cut production one year ago. As a result, the higher prices, which hint of inflation, have weighed on Treasury securities.
    On Wednesday's economic calendar, February U.S. new home sales are expected to show a decline to a 875,000 unit pace against 882,000 in January, according to analysts surveyed by Briefing.com.
    Also scheduled Wednesday is the U.S. Treasury's auction of $12 billion two-year notes.
    (Click here for a look at Briefing.com's economic calendar.)
    
Dollar mixed

    The dollar was mixed against the major currencies Tuesday. Shortly before 3 p.m. ET, the dollar traded at 105.83 yen, down from 106.71 yen Monday, a 0.8 percent loss in the dollar's value.
    Meanwhile, the euro changed hands at 96.18 cents, down from 96.66 cents Monday, a 0.5 percent gain in the dollar's value. Back to top

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