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Markets & Stocks
Cisco, Dell to greet Street
May 7, 2000: 8:00 a.m. ET

Tech bellwethers posts much-anticipated results ahead of Fed
By Staff Writer Jake Ulick
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The flow of corporate earnings reports trickles to a near halt in the days ahead. But what's lacking in quantity is made up for in importance.

Tech bellwethers Cisco Systems and Dell Computer this week are scheduled to report quarterly results, providing a key read on the health of the technology industry. And Microsoft Corp. is expected to file its response to the government's remedy proposal by Wednesday. The government is seeking a break-up of the software giant on the grounds that it violated the nation's antitrust laws.

Analysts said the quarterly results from Dell and Cisco will attract considerable attention from investors.

"The market is going to want to see in those numbers some clues that the PC market is picking up post-Y2K," said Barry Hyman, chief market strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum.

For months, analysts have questioned the future of the computer industry in an era when Internet users are increasingly migrating to hand-held wireless devices.

Reports from Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates), which makes equipment that links computer networks, and Dell Computer (DELL: Research, Estimates), the No. 2, computer maker, and even Applied Materials (AMAT: Research, Estimates), a chip maker, could be a gauge on the future.

Cisco stock had a solid rally Friday, possibly on anticipation of good results.

"I'm going to be especially interested if the stock can sustain any upside moves behind the earnings report that is expected to be very good," said Clark Yingst, market analyst at Prudential Securities.

Analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial forecast that Cisco earned 13 cents per share in its fiscal third quarter, up 30 percent from the 10 cents per share in the year-ago period.

A range-bound market?


When it comes to the markets, both Yingst and Hyman expects volatility in the weeks ahead with positive sessions punctuated by down ones.

graphicThat's was certainly the case last week when stocks rallied Monday and Tuesday, fell Wednesday and Thursday and rose Friday.

For the five-day period, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.1 percent, ending at 3,816.32.

The Dow Jones industrial average shed 1.4 percent last week, finishing at 10,577.86.

"There's a possibility that we may have a very volatile market a very choppy market over the next few weeks," Yingst said. "The evidence is growing that the rally (of late April) was just an oversold bounce."

Indeed, many analysts don't see the market rallying again until the Federal Reserve finishes raising interest rates.

Unlike some Wall Street watchers, Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum's Hyman is not convinced the Fed will raise rates by half a percentage point later this month.

Further, he argues the if the central bank really wants to keep a lid on the market it will take smaller steps with tightening credit, thereby leaving investors guessing about what's next.

graphicA quarter percentage point rate-hike "would keep the market at bay rather than clear the air," Hyman said.

The week's economic indicators may not offer much direction -- one-week ahead of the Fed's May 16 policy-making meeting.

The most closely watched report comes Friday, when investors get a read on wholesale inflation. The Producer Price Index, a gauge of prices at the wholesale level, could move markets, giving a read on how aggressively the Fed may need to be on tightening credit.

The week's data on retail sales, import prices and consumer credit rarely move markets.

Wal-Mart ahead


Cisco, Dell and Applied Material won't be the only big names to report.

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest, retailer posts quarterly results in the days ahead.

Goldman Sachs downgraded the retail sector last week, concerned that higher interest rates will mean a slowdown in consumer spending.

But Prudential's Yingst is more optimistic about the sector and Wal-Mart in particularly, saying the retailer's discount sales are unlikely to suffer from slower spending  the way a luxury retailer's might.

"As long as consumers have a job and as long as they have a wages they will ultimately spend," he said, referring to labor market evidence contained in the April jobs report.

Several high-profile analysts meetings come in the days ahead, possibly leading to upgrades and downgrades that could move the market.

IBM hosts an analysts' meeting Tuesday. Chase Hambrecht & Quist hosts a technology conference that begins on Monday and Yahoo!'s annual shareholder meeting is Friday.

And after a virtual slowdown in the initial public offering market, a few companies may test the water this week. But all are small deals. In the largest, Digitalwork.com, "dwrk," an Internet service provider, plans on pricing 6.25 million shares in the $10 to $13 range. Back to top

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