Consumer Price Index Summary
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JUNE 2000
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.6 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 172.3 (1982-
84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
reported today. For the 12-month period ended in June, the CPI-U
increased 3.7 percent.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) also rose 0.6 percent in June, prior to seasonal adjustment. The
June level of 169.1 was 3.9 percent higher than the index in June 1999.
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in June
after increasing 0.1 percent in May. The energy index, which declined 1.9
percent in May, increased 5.6 percent in June, accounting for three-
fourths of the overall CPI-U advance. The index for petroleum-based
energy rose 8.1 percent, and the index for energy services increased 2.9
percent. The food index, which advanced 0.5 percent in May, increased 0.1
percent in June. The moderation was largely the result of downturns in
the indexes for fruits and vegetables and for cereal and bakery products.
Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in June, the same as
in both April and May.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 1999 2000 3-mos. ended ended
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June June '00 June '00
All Items .2 .2 .5 .7 .0 .1 .6 2.6 3.7
Food and beverages .1 .0 .4 .1 .1 .5 .1 2.7 2.3
Housing .1 .3 .5 .4 .1 .2 .5 3.6 3.2
Apparel .0 -1.1 .2 .3 -.5 -.2 -.6 -5.1 -2.0
Transportation .8 .1 1.3 2.5 -.7 -.5 1.8 2.6 8.6
Medical care .4 .3 .4 .5 .3 .3 .4 4.1 4.1
Recreation .2 .2 .0 .4 .0 .3 .3 2.4 1.2
Education and
communication .2 .5 -.5 .0 .0 .1 -.1 .0 1.2
Other goods and
services .0 .6 .8 .5 1.4 -.6 -.2 2.4 5.4
Special Indexes
Energy 1.8 1.0 4.6 4.9 -1.9 -1.9 5.6 6.6 21.3
Food .1 -.1 .4 .1 .1 .5 .1 2.7 2.3
All Items less
food and energy .1 .2 .2 .4 .2 .2 .2 2.0 2.4
See page 5 for a note on the use of hedonic models to adjust prices of
selected products in the CPI for changes in quality.
Consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of
2.6 percent in the second quarter after advancing at a 5.8 percent rate in
the first three months of 2000. This brings the year-to-date annual rate
to 4.2 percent and compares with an increase of 2.7 percent for all of
1999. The acceleration in the overall CPI-U thus far in 2000 reflects an
even sharper increase in energy prices than in 1999, coupled with slightly
larger advances in the indexes for food and for all items less food and
energy. The energy index, which rose 13.4 percent in 1999, has continued
to accelerate this year, advancing at a 26.6 percent SAAR thus far in
2000. In the first half of 2000, petroleum-based energy costs increased
at a 44.6 percent SAAR, and charges for energy services increased at a
10.2 percent annual rate. The food index rose at a 2.2 percent SAAR in
the first 6 months of 2000, following an increase of 1.9 percent in all of
1999. Grocery store food prices also rose at a 2.2 percent SAAR in the
first six months, with the largest increase among the six major grocery
store food groups in the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs--up at a
8.5 percent rate.
The CPI-U excluding food and energy advanced at a 2.0 percent rate in
the second quarter of 2000, following an increase at a 3.2 percent rate in
the first three months of 2000. The advance at a 2.6 percent SAAR for the
first half of 2000 compares with a 1.9 percent increase for all of 1999.
This acceleration has been concentrated in the services components; the
index for services less energy services increased 2.7 percent in all of
1999 and has risen at a 3.7 percent SAAR in the first 6 months of this
year. Contributing to this acceleration were larger increases in the
indexes for shelter, for medical care services, and for airline fares.
The index for commodities less food and energy commodities rose 0.2
percent in all of 1999 and at a 0.1 percent SAAR in the first half of
2000. The rates for selected groups for the last five and one-half years
are shown below.
Percentage change 12 months SAAR 6
ended in December mos. ended
in June
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
All items 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.7 4.2
Food and beverages 2.1 4.2 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.3
Housing 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3
Apparel 0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.7 -.5 -3.9
Transportation 1.5 4.4 -1.4 -1.7 5.4 9.5
Medical care 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.4
Recreation 2.8 3.0 1.5 1.2 .8 2.4
Education and
communication 4.0 3.4 3.0 0.7 1.6 .0
Other goods and
services 4.3 3.6 5.2 8.8 5.1 5.1
Special indexes
Energy -1.3 8.6 -3.4 -8.8 13.4 26.6
Energy commodities -3.3 13.8 -6.9 -15.1 29.5 44.6
Energy services 0.8 3.8 0.2 -3.3 1.2 10.2
All items less energy 2.9 2.9 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.5
Food 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.2
All items less food
and energy 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6
The food and beverages index increased 0.1 percent in June. The
index for food at home, which rose 0.7 percent in May, increased 0.1
percent in June. Most of the major food at home groups contributed to the
deceleration in June. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose 1.6
percent in May, decreased 0.7 percent in June. Within the fruits and
vegetables group, a 2.8 percent decrease in the index for fresh fruits
more than offset increases in the indexes for fresh vegetables and
processed fruits and vegetables--up 1.0 and 0.2 percent, respectively.
(Prior to seasonal adjustment, fresh vegetable prices fell 0.6 percent.)
The indexes for cereal and bakery products and for dairy products also
declined in June--down 0.7 and 0.1 percent, respectively. The index for
meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.5 percent in June after increasing
0.8 percent in May. In June, the index for beef continued to advance--up
1.1 percent--while the indexes for pork and for poultry turned down.
During the first 6 months of the year, beef prices have risen at a 10.8
percent SAAR, pork prices at an 11.0 percent SAAR, and poultry prices at a
2.3 percent SAAR. The indexes for nonalcoholic beverages and other food
at home each increased 0.4 percent in June. The other two components of
the food and beverages index--food away from home and alcoholic beverages-
-increased 0.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively.
The index for housing increased 0.5 percent in June, following a 0.2
percent rise in May. The index for fuels and utilities, which declined
0.1 percent in May, advanced 2.2 percent in June. The index for natural
gas rose a record 7.8 percent in June, its sixth consecutive monthly
increase. During the first 6 months this year, this index has advanced at
a 34.1 percent SAAR. The index for electricity increased 0.8 percent in
June. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, charges for electricity rose 6.6
percent, reflecting the shift to seasonal rates in some areas.) The index
for fuel oil turned up in June--advancing 1.1 percent--following declines
in each of the three preceding months. Through the first six months of
2000, fuel oil prices have advanced at a 40.9 percent SAAR. Shelter
costs, which rose 0.3 percent in May, increased 0.4 percent in June.
Within shelter, the index for rent increased 0.2 percent; owners'
equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent; and the index for lodging away from home
advanced 1.3 percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for
lodging away from home rose 2.6 percent.) The index for household
furnishings and operations declined 0.1 percent in June.
The transportation component, which declined in both April and May,
turned up sharply in June, advancing 1.8 percent. More than nine-tenths
of the June advance was due to the sharp increase in gasoline prices. The
8.8 percent increase in the index for gasoline more than offset the price
declines registered in April and May. As of June, the index for gasoline
was 0.6 percent higher than its previous peak level of March 2000. The
index for new vehicles declined 0.1 percent in June after advancing 0.2
percent in May. The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.2 percent.
Public transportation costs increased 1.0 percent, largely as a result of
a 1.5 percent rise in airline fares. Airline fares have risen at an 18.7
percent SAAR thus far in 2000 after increasing 10.9 percent in all of
1999.
The index for apparel declined for the third consecutive month, down
0.6 percent in June. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel prices fell
3.0 percent, reflecting seasonal price discounting on spring-summer wear.)
Medical care costs rose 0.4 percent in June and were 4.1 percent
higher than a year ago. In June, the index for medical care commodities--
prescription drugs, and nonprescription drugs and medical supplies--rose
0.2 percent. The index for medical care services rose 0.5 percent in
June. Charges for professional services and for hospital and related
services increased 0.4 and 0.8 percent, respectively.
The index for recreation costs increased 0.3 percent in June, the
same as in May. The index for admissions to movies, theaters, concerts,
and sporting events rose 1.7 percent in June, accounting for about two-
thirds of the overall increase in June recreation index.
The index for education and communication declined 0.1 percent in
June, following a 0.1 percent increase in May. Educational costs rose 0.8
percent in June, while the index for communication declined 1.2 percent.
The latter decrease reflects declines in the indexes for telephone
services and for personal computers and peripheral equipment--down 1.3 and
2.8 percent, respectively.
The index for other goods and services declined for the second
consecutive month, down 0.2 percent in June. Cigarette prices fell 1.4
percent in June, following a 2.8 percent decline in May, but have advanced
at an 11.0 percent SAAR thus far this year.
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers increased 0.6 percent in June.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for
Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 1999 2000 3-mos. ended ended
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June June '00 June '00
All Items .2 .2 .5 .7 .0 .1 .6 2.6 3.9
Food and beverages .1 -.1 .4 .2 .1 .5 .1 2.7 2.4
Housing .1 .2 .6 .2 .2 .2 .5 3.7 3.1
Apparel .1 -1.0 .1 .2 -.5 -.2 -.5 -4.6 -1.8
Transportation .9 .2 1.3 2.6 -.8 -.5 2.0 2.9 9.2
Medical care .3 .3 .4 .5 .4 .3 .4 4.3 4.1
Recreation .2 .2 -.1 .4 .0 .4 .3 2.8 .9
Education and
communication .2 .6 -.5 -.1 .0 .2 -.3 -.4 1.0
Other goods and
services .0 .7 .9 .6 1.8 -1.0 -.3 1.8 6.1
Special Indexes
Energy 2.1 1.0 4.5 5.5 -2.4 -1.9 6.2 7.2 23.3
Food .1 -.1 .4 .2 .1 .5 .1 2.7 2.5
All Items less
food and energy .1 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 .1 2.1 2.3
Consumer Price Index data for July are scheduled for release on
Wednesday, August 16, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
_________________________________________________________________________
Extending the use of hedonic models to
adjust prices for changes in quality
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is continuing to expand the use
in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of quality adjustments derived from
hedonic models. As first announced at the time of the January 2000 CPI
release, hedonic quality adjustments for Video Cassette Recorders and
Digital Versatile Disc players were incorporated into the index
effective with the April 2000 CPI. These items are in the Other video
equipment item stratum, which contains video equipment other than
televisions. Papers describing these adjustments are on the CPI's web site
(http://stats.bls.gov/cpihome.htm). Effective with the CPI for July 2000,
BLS will extend hedonic quality adjustment to Refrigerator/freezers and
Microwave ovens, which are part of the Major appliances stratum, and to
College textbooks, which are part of the Educational books and supplies
stratum.
A hedonic model decomposes the price of a consumer product into
implicit prices for each of its important features and components, thereby
providing an estimate of the value of each feature and component. We plan
to extend this method to additional items in the CPI. As we do so, we
will give CPI users notice at least three months before the first use of
hedonic quality adjustment for each additional item and will have detailed
papers on the models to be employed available by the time of first use.
The relative importance (share of weight), as of December 1999, of
the Major appliances stratum was 0.205 percent in the CPI for all Urban
Consumers (CPI-U) and 0.236 percent in the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Within Major appliances, Refrigerator/freezers
are estimated to represent 33 percent of the weight and Microwave ovens
about 11 percent. The remaining items in this stratum-those that will not
be subject to hedonic quality adjustment at this time-include home
freezers, washers and dryers, and conventional stoves and ovens. The
December 1999 relative importance of the Educational books and supplies
stratum was 0.196 percent in the CPI-U and 0.192 percent in the CPI-W.
Within Educational books and supplies, College textbooks are estimated to
represent 79 percent of the weight. The items in this stratum that will
not be subject to hedonic quality adjustment at this time include
Elementary and high school books and supplies and Encyclopedias and other
reference books.
The hedonic models that BLS analysts developed for
Refrigerator/freezers and Microwave ovens use observations collected for
the CPI, supplemented with additional observations that the BLS collected
specifically for this purpose. The College textbook work was accomplished
using only observations collected for the CPI, without supplemental
collected data. Papers describing this work are in preparation and will be
available before release of the July 2000 CPI.
Additional work on hedonic quality adjustment for telephones and for
washers and dryers is underway at BLS.
For more information on these changes, write to
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes
2 Massachusetts Ave. NE, Room 3260
Washington, DC 20212
or contact Paul Liegey either by telephone at (202) 691-5394 or by
electronic mail at Liegey_P@bls.gov.
__________________________________________________________________________
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to
sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone:
202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339. For
a recorded message of Summary CPI data, call (202) 691-5200.
__________________________________________________________________________
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the
average change in prices over time in a market basket of
goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) a CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which covers approximately 87
percent of the total population and (2) a CPI for Urban Wage
Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which covers 32 percent
of the total population. The CPI-U includes, in addition to
wage earners and clerical workers, groups such as
professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees
and others not in the labor force.
The CPI is based on prices of food, clothing, shelter,
and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and
dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that
people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected in
87 urban areas across the country from about 50,000 housing
units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling
stations, and other types of stores and service
establishments. All taxes directly associated with the
purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices
of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in
all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities and
services are collected every month in the three largest
geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal
visits or telephone calls of the Bureau's trained
representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various
items in each location are averaged together with weights
which represent their importance in the spending of the
appropriate population group. Local data are then combined
to obtain a U.S. city average. Separate indexes are also
published by size of city, by region of the country, for
cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 26 local areas. Area indexes do not
measure differences in the level of prices among cities,
they only measure the average change in prices for each area
since the base period.
The index measures price change from a designed
reference date-1982-84 which equals 100.0. An increase of
16.5 percent, for example, is shown as 116.5. This change
can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a
base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI
has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the
Internet at http://stats.bls.gov/cpihome.htm or contact our
CPI Information and Analysis Section on (202) 691-7000.
__________________________________________________________________________
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are
usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index
points, because index point changes are affected by the level of
the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are
not. The example below illustrates the computation of index point
and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed
as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula
for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent
change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month
period.
Index Point Change
CPI 115.7
Less previous index 111.2
Equals index point change 4.5
Percent Change
Index point difference 4.5
Divided by the previous index 111.2
Equals 0.040
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.040x100
Equals percent change 4.0
_________________________________________________________________________
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by
different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes
seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each
month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy,
seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they
eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the
same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such
as price movements resulting from changing climatic
conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays,
and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to
consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay.
Unadjusted data also are used extensively for escalation
purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements
and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to
the Consumer Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally
adjusted indexes are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal
Adjustment Method. The updated seasonal data at the end of
1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977. Subsequent
annual updates have replaced 5 years of seasonal data, e.g.,
data from 1995 through 1999 were replaced at the end of
1999. The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other
aggregations is derived by combining the seasonal movement
of 73 selected components. Each year the seasonal status of
every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
criteria. If any of the 73 components change their seasonal
adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally
adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used for the
last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes will be
used before that period.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the All items index
levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after
their original release. For this reason, BLS advises
against the use of these data in escalation agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors
for 1990, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an
enhanced seasonal adjustment procedure called Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI series.
Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values
and/or sharp movements which might distort the seasonal
pattern are estimated and removed from the data prior to
calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning with the
calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA
software was used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal
Adjustment.
For the fuel oil and the motor fuels indexes, this
procedure was used to offset the effects that extreme price
volatility would otherwise have had on the estimates of
seasonally adjusted data for those series. For the
breakfast cereal index, the procedure was used to offset the
effects of price-cutting among cereal manufacturers. For
the educational books and supplies index, the procedure was
used to account for greater than normal sale prices on
educational reference books. For some alcoholic beverage
series, Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment was used
to offset the effects of increased brewer's costs along with
increased demand for specialty beers. For the nonalcoholic
beverages index, the procedure was used to offset the
effects of a large increase in coffee prices due to adverse
weather. For the fats and oils series, the procedure was
used to account for lower domestic butter stocks, lower cold
storage supplies, and anticipation of a bumper soybean crop.
For the new trucks index, the procedure was applied to
account for loyalty rebates offered to customers by American
automakers. For the water and sewerage maintenance index,
the procedure was used to account for a data collection anomaly.
A description of Intervention Analysis Seasonal
Adjustment, as well as a list of unusual events modeled and
seasonal factors for these items may be obtained by writing
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices
and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or by calling Claire
McAnaw Gallagher on (202) 691-6968 or sending e-mail to
Gallagher_C@BLS.GOV.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
mailto:gibson_s@bls.gov
Last modified:
Tuesday, July 18, 2000
URL: /news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
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Consumer Price Index