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Kandel on bull markets
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August 11, 2000: 5:38 a.m. ET
This Sunday, the longest bull market in history puffs 18 candles
By CNNfn Financial Editor Myron Kandel
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - It probably won't be marked by fireworks or flag-waving, but this Sunday represents an important milestone for the stock market - the beginning of the biggest and longest bull market in history, which started 18 years ago and continues to this day.
On Aug. 12, 1982, the Dow Jones industrial average edged down a little more than a quarter-point to close at 776.92. That was the low, and it's been higher than that ever since, notwithstanding some precipitous drops. The Dow is now more than 10,000 points higher. That's a gain of more than 1300 percent in 18 years. From its low on the 12th, the Dow rose eight points the next day, a Friday; four more the following Monday, and then zoomed 38 points, or nearly 5 percent on Tuesday. From there it was off and running.
 The stock market prospered under the Administrations of Presidents Reagan, Bush and Clinton, but particularly skyrocketed over the last five years, before slackening this year. There were a number of reasons. Powerful economic growth, low inflation, an easing of oil prices, lower taxes, a technological revolution, a transition from huge federal budget deficits to huge surpluses, and a new generation of well-heeled, retirement-conscious investors all combined to send stock prices soaring.
There were some significant downturns during this bull run - notably the crash of October 19, 1987 and the sharp decline that followed the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait ten years ago this month. But both those declines -- and others since then -- were relatively short-lived and, in my view, merely represented interruptions, rather than endings to the bull market that began in August, 1982. That raging bull is still alive and has more to go.
I authored a book, published in January, 1982, titled, "How to Cash In on the Coming Stock Market Boom!" which said that investors who did not participate "would miss out on one of the great buying opportunities of the decade." Little did I realize that it would turn out to be one of the great opportunities of the century. And I admit to wincing now at some of the comments I made then.
But I was on the mark in saying that demographics would have an increasingly significant impact on the market in the years ahead, particularly the aging of the baby boomers who would turn their thoughts from consumption to investment. "This age group," I wrote, "will contribute a new pool of investors ready and eager to join the game, thus adding more fuel to the demand for equities." That, of course, is what has happened, and that flow of funds has been an important contributor to the market's strength over recent years.
I'm still bullish on the market, largely because of this continuing supply of new money and my belief that the Federal Reserve has thus far been successfully orchestrating a soft landing to an overheated economy. With inflation still well under control and the economy slowing gradually, I think the Fed's yearlong series of interest-rate tightening moves is over, at least for now.
Corporate earnings should remain strong and interest rates should come down. If that happens, the overall market is headed for new records. Notice I said, "overall market." Shocks to individual stocks, even sectors, will continue. 
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