FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, September 15, 2000 CB00-148
Sales. The Census Bureau of the
Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive
trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and
trading-day differences but not for price changes, were estimated at $899.6
billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.1%) from June but were up 7.5 percent (±0.3%) from
July 1999. Total durable goods were down 0.8 percent (±0.2%) from June but were
up 5.5 percent (±0.4%) from July 1999. Total nondurable goods were up 0.1
percent (±0.1%) from June and were up 9.6 percent (±0.3%) from July 1999.
Inventories. Manufacturers’ and
trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes,
were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,195.1 billion, up 0.2 percent
(±0.1%) from June and up 6.5 percent (±0.5%) from July 1999. Total durable goods
were up 0.3 percent (±0.2%) from June and were up 6.5 percent (±0.7%) from July
1999. Total nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (±0.1%) from June and were up
6.6 percent (±0.5%) from July 1999.
Inventories/Sales Ratio.
The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted
data at the end of July was 1.33. The July 1999 ratio was 1.34.
The Manufacturing and Trade
Inventories and Sales Report for August is scheduled for release October 16,
2000 at 8:30 a.m. Questions concerning this report may be addressed to: Nancy
Piesto (301) 457-2706/2708 (Retail), Lee Wentela (301) 457-4832 (Manufacturing),
or Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2747/2764 (Wholesale). Electronic inquiries may be
sent to: retail.trade@ccmail.census.gov. Table 1. Estimated Monthly
Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant
Wholesalers See footnotes and notes at the end of table 3.
Table 2. Percent Changes for
Sales and Inventories--Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant
Wholesalers Table 3. Estimated Monthly
Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, By Kind of
Business (p) Preliminary. 1 Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis
as of the end of the month. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and
Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade
Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and
merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval
for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will
cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the
estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and
the margin of sampling error is because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a
probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry
estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also
subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such
errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population
units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although
no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps
were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the
data to minimize their influence. 
(In millions of dollars)
(p) Preliminary.
(r) Revised.
(s) Adjusted data were revised due to
concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data.
(In
millions of dollars)
(r) Revised.
(s)
Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment.
2 Adjusted for seasonal variations
and, in the case of sales, for trading-day differences and holiday variations.
Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment, and
inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available
unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12-ARIMA program. The factors derived
from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for
retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent
seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one
month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the
advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year
ago.
3 Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by
manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted
prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations
in the length of the reporting period. 
Source: Monthly
Retail Surveys Branch, U.S. Census Bureau
| Last Revised: September 15, 2000
