NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Earnings, the euro, and energy prices will be the three "E's" that investors will focus on this week as they try to gauge the stocks in which to park their money.
"There's no concern about what the Fed is going to do so the primary focus is going to be on pre-announcements and company guidance for the second half," said Bill Meehan, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. "We've had quite a few multinationals reporting that the weakness of the euro [is] negatively impacting their earnings and I think we're likely to continue to see more of those."
With the euro hitting lifetime lows against the dollar, several companies have warned that results would fall short of expectations as global sales take a hit from the currency's weakness.
Just last week, McDonald's (MCD: Research, Estimates) said its 2000 earnings could be hurt by as much as 7 cents a share and Colgate-Palmolive (CL: Research, Estimates) took a hit after Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown cut its rating to "market perform" from "buy" amid concerns that the company's European earnings would be hurt by converting euros into U.S. dollars.
The euro hit a fresh lifetime low of 85.40 cents versus the dollar on September 15. The common currency has lost more than 27 percent from its value of $1.17 at its launch in January 1999.
"The euro can be a serious problem for the U.S. but there is little the European Central Bank can do; it's already raised rates aggressively," James Stewart, an economist at Weavering Capital, told CNNfn. "The euro could gently descend to 80 cents."
Still, Chuck Hill, director of research for First Call/Thomson Financial, said the falling euro would have more impact on fourth quarter results and investors should not expect too many negative surprises from third-quarter corporate reports.
"I don't think it's going to have a huge impact on the third quarter," said Hill. "Going forward, if it (euro) stays here, the impact could be much more severe next quarter. It's that way with all the problems we're having with earnings."
Surging energy prices have caused investors concern about how much of a negative impact the rising cost of fuel will have on corporate profit growth. Oil prices have soared to levels not seen since the Gulf War.
U.S. light sweet crude for November delivery rose $1.40 to $34.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. London's benchmark Brent for November delivery gained $1.41 cents to $33.70 a barrel.
There is little on the economic front due this week and analysts said that much of the incoming data have already been factored into market action.
Wall Street's ups and downs
Last week, U.S. stocks were unable to hold onto any significant gains, which dampened analysts' sentiment for the period ahead.
"I'm not very enthusiastic. I think the market is not behaving well as a whole," said Terence Gabriel, stock market strategist at IDEAglobal.com. "There's just a lot of trepidation about earnings when you look forward into the new year when the reports come in January."
The Nasdaq lost 3.8 percent to 3,835. The Dow shed 2.7 percent to fall to 10,927, its first foray below 11,000 since August 10. The S&P shed nearly 2 percent to end the week at 1,465.
Analysts still expect incoming corporate results warnings to unnerve investors and cause further upset on Wall Street.
"Especially with the numbers actually coming out, the tendency for this market has been to get out of those stocks reporting earnings a day or two before the report because after they report, it's going to be downhill," said Gabriel.
Financial companies results roll in
As companies start reporting their quarterly results, financial firms will be taking center stage this week.
Goldman Sachs (GS: Research, Estimates) reports its earnings on Tuesday. The firm is expected to report a third-quarter profit of $1.49 per share, according to analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial, compared with $1.31 a share earned a year ago.
"Many stocks have already built in good earnings," said IDEAglobal's Gabriel. "A stock like Goldman Sachs had a tremendous run over the last two or three months, so my sense would be you'll have a 'sell on good news' for a lot of these financial stocks that have rallied."
On Wednesday, Lehman Brothers (LEH: Research, Estimates) will post its third quarter results. Analysts forecast a $2.74 per share profit, versus the $2.20 a share earned in the year-ago period.
Morgan Stanely Dean Witter (MWD: Research, Estimates) is expected to report a profit of $1.18 cents a share when it reports on Thursday, compared with 83 cents a share earned a year earlier.
Other major firms reporting this week include Federal Express (FDX: Research, Estimates), reporting its fiscal 2001 first-quarter results on Tuesday, and CMGI Inc (CMGI: Research, Estimates), reporting its fourth-quarter results on Thursday.
Click here for a comprehensive earnings calendar
Upcoming corporate events
Investors may be able to get some idea of corporate trends or sentiment from this week's meetings and events.
Ariba (ARBA: Research, Estimates) will hold an analyst meeting in Miami on Monday while Amazon.com (AMZN: Research, Estimates) will host its analyst meeting in Reno, Nevada, on Tuesday.
"There are a lot of conferences scheduled and there we'll get some (indicators) within the technology group," said Cantor Fitzgerald's Meehan.
Other events include SG Cowen's Fall technology conference in Boston, being held Monday and Tuesday, Lehman Brothers' wireless Internet conference in New York on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Commerce One's e-Link conference in Las Vegas, held Monday through Wednesday.
Prudential Securities will hold an Internet and telecommunications conference in San Francisco from Monday through Wednesday, and Dain Rauscher Wessels will host and energy conference in Houston from Monday through Thursday.
Economic news
Last week's economic data lent further evidence that the economy is in a slowdown and the prospects of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are slim.
Two major reports came in below analyst expectations. The Labor Department reported the Producer Price Index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, posted a 0.2 percent drop in August, far weaker than the estimates of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com, who had forecast a 0.1 percent rise.
Separately, the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index fell 0.1 percent. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 0.2 percent gain, the same as the July increase.
Analysts said rising oil prices continued to weigh on the economy and some focus has shifted to next month's numbers and what they may reveal as a result of the spiking energy prices.
"There's still a lot of concern about energy prices," said IDEAglobal's Gabriel. "People are already looking forward to the numbers in October which are going to be potentially far worse."
Coming up on Tuesday, the Commerce Department will report the annual rate of housing starts for August. According to analysts surveyed by Briefing.com, the rate is forecast to rise to 1.53 million from 1.512 million in July, which was the lowest level since November 1997.
Housing starts are used to gauge consumer purchasing trends, due to the need to furnish new houses with furniture and appliances.
On Thursday, the Labor Department will report the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended September 16.
Click here for a comprehensive look at upcoming economic data
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak before the American Banker's Association's annual meeting on banking supervision on Monday.
|