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Personal Finance > Investing
Clouds linger on Wall St.
September 24, 2000: 7:00 a.m. ET

After another tough week, analysts say earnings problems still lie ahead
By Staff Writer Jake Ulick
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Major U.S. stock indexes fell every week in September. Now, with a tough month nearly over investors could use a turnaround.

But don't count on a week of big gains, say several analysts, who believe the series of problems that sparked this month's sell-off won't go away anytime soon.

"Have we put in a bottom?" asked Chris Wolfe, equity strategist at J.P. Morgan. "The short answer is no."

More than 60 companies last week warned that financial results in the current quarter will miss Wall Street forecasts, sending stocks reeling.  With the traditional period for these pre-announcements not yet over, analysts see more trouble ahead.

graphicNot that there hasn't been plenty of trouble already. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.7 percent this week and is 4 percent lower on the month. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 0.8 percent over the last five days and is down 10 percent on the month. The S&P 500 shed 1.1 percent last week, bringing its September loss to 5 percent.

J.P. Morgan's Wolfe does not expect a crash in the days ahead. He simply sees few real gains until the market gets a clear read on profit strength for the June-September period, something that won't come for another month.

The profit picture weakened last week as companies such as Intel, Alcoa and Gillette readied Wall Street for financial disappointments.

The problems come amid two market negatives. The euro tumbled to a new lifetime low below 85 cents last week while crude oil prices surged above $37, a ten-year high.

Steep oil prices raise costs for businesses and consumers, crimping profits and slowing economic growth. At the same time, the euro has lost more than 20 percent of its value since its inception, making it tougher for American companies with European operations to grow earnings.

This, plus some of the highest interest rates in a decade, has led to the month's rash of profit warnings -- warnings that analysts fear may continue in the days ahead.

graphicNed Riley, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, notes that tech stocks are still expensive. He says Nasdaq's biggest companies trade, on average, at about 100 times earnings. Profits among these companies are expected to grow by about 35 percent next year.

"The price-earnings ratio of these companies leaves no room for accidents," Riley said.

Accidents may still lie ahead. But Riley sees the markets recovering once the reporting period for the third quarter begins later next month.

"After that we could see a substantial rally mainly because the worst of the news is out at that point," Riley said.

A range of data


The week's economic reports, though large in number, are second tier in nature. Economists say the figures will generally show sustained growth, suggesting the economy remains solid but not so buoyant as to stoke inflation fears.

Monday brings existing-home-sales data for August. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expect that home sales rose to an annual level of 4.94 million from a 4.79 million rate in July.

September's consumer confidence figures come Tuesday. The gauge of consumer sentiment is seen edging slightly higher to 141.2 from 141.1 in August. Wednesday's durable good orders for August are expected to rebound 2.4 percent after tumbling 12.4 percent in July. The final reading on the nation's second-quarter gross domestic product comes Thursday. It's expected to rise 5.3 percent, identical to the prior reading. Finally, August personal income figures on Friday are forecast to jump 0.3 percent, just like the prior month.

graphic"I think the numbers will be positive but not enough to suggest that the Fed needs to tighten anytime soon," said Mike Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. The Federal Reserve, after raising interest rates six times in a year, has left rates alone at their last two meetings. Many economists forecast steady rates for the rest of the year.

The week's corporate earnings reports are few. Palm Inc. (PALM: Research, Estimates), the maker of the popular hand-held computing device, is expected to post flat quarterly earnings of 2 cents per share. 3Com (COMS: Research, Estimates), which spun off the Palm unit earlier this year, is seen losing 33 cents per share following a gain of 31 cents in the year-ago period.

Similarly, National Discount Brokers  (NDB: Research, Estimates) is expected to post a loss of 8 cents a share after earning 2 cents in the year-ago period.

Marriott International (MAR: Research, Estimates) will be among the few to grow earnings. The hotel operator is forecast to show a 42-cent-per-share profit, above the 36 cents last year.

September's stock losses are not without precedent. Abby Joseph Cohen, the influential Goldman Sachs strategist, made a nod to that notion last week by saying that stocks typically fall this month, only to rise by the year's end.

"The so-called January rally has been a Thanksgiving event in the United States for the past decade," Cohen wrote in a note to clients.

For hard-hit investors, any rally will do. Back to top

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