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News > Economy
Busy week seen for Street
October 1, 2000: 7:00 a.m. ET

Wall Street to brace for Fed meeting, economic data, earnings reports
By Staff Writer Franklin Paul
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Brace yourself, Wall Street watcher: If you thought last week's topsy-turvy trading was dizzying, just wait until this week, when interest rates, high-profile quarterly earnings and key economic indicators enter the fray.

Following a week of startling profit warnings, particularly in the technology sector, the earnings season officially kicks off and Alan Greenspan's Fed again meets to take the economy's pulse and check the progress of a forced slowdown that has been labeled a "soft landing."

graphicThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policy-making body, reveals its interest rate decision just after 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday. 

Changes are not expected, in part, experts say, because of the meetings' close proximity to the U.S. presidential election in early November. Still, the market always holds its collective breath just before the release of the committee's decision, as investors brace for any possible surprises or clues on how the economy will perform for the rest of the year.

"[So far] the Fed is not on the radar screen because I think everyone agrees, certainly I agree, that they'll keep policy unchanged, as they did in August and the preceding June meetings," said David Jones, chief economist, Aubrey G. Lanston.

graphic"They still will be on hold, I think, easily through the end of the year, maybe into next year," Jones added. (547K WAV, 547 AIFF).

Terence Gabriel, a stock market strategist for IDEAglobal.com, suggests that a lack of confidence in the market exists, with investors waiting for the next big piece of news or economic indicator to take the market on another wild ride.

"I think it's all part of what are oversold reactions," Gabriel said from New York. "The market is ripe for those, but I don't see them as sustainable. You can have, on any given day, a strong "up" day. But the overall prevailing trend is down."

"It's a messy market. A very messy market," he added.

More disarray may be on tap this week, mirroring the turbulence of last week. During that period, both the Dow and Nasdaq stock exchanges scored broad gains and hefty losses on successive days, ending the week on the downside. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed at 3,672, down 105 points, while the Dow tumbled 173 points to 10,650.

Quarterly earnings report season kicks off


The October earnings season kicks off this week after a period of warnings from leading technology companies.

On Wednesday, soft drink and snack food maker PepsiCo  (PEP: Research, Estimates) is expected to report before the opening bell. Analysts expect the company to deliver a third-quarter profit of 39 cents a share, 5 cents higher than a year ago.




Click here for a comprehensive earnings calendar




Also on Wednesday, closely watched memory chip maker Micron Technologies (MU: Research, Estimates) delivers its fourth-quarter earnings report. The report, which analysts expect to show a profit of 96 cents a share, follows a rough week for technology companies, in which Intel, Apple and Priceline, among others, warned of earnings or revenue shortfalls in the quarter.

Rounding out the week is metals company Alcoa (AA: Research, Estimates), a Dow component, which on Thursday is anticipated to show a third-quarter profit of 43 cents a share, according to analysts.

graphicMore than 60 companies this week warned about upcoming shortfalls, their disappointing revelations limiting any rallies. But analysts seemed to believe the warnings are not so shocking when you factor in the slowdown in economic growth conjured up by Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve.

graphic"All of these pre-announcements have had a big negative impact on people and the psychology going forward," said Ronald Hill, partner and equity strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "We had it in semiconductors, and right now it's going to the [personal computer] box makers. All of this is actually part and parcel of a soft-landing scenario whereby the economy grows more slowly, revenue growth declines, for a lot of these high-growth companies."

Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments, suggests that the earnings season will provide a spark to Wall Street, particularly in light of diminishing concerns about high oil prices and a strong dollar.

"I still believe that the earnings season is going to prove out to be a good one, and that should help to lift some of the negative sentiment that is in the market," he said.

Unemployment, other key economic data due


Several economic reports will factor into this week's trade. Setting the tone on Monday is the National Association of Purchasing Management index of manufacturing, which Briefing.com estimates will rise to 50.7 percent, from 49.5 percent last month. A figure above 50 points to growth in manufacturing, while one below that indicates contraction.

September's unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data, due on Friday, will be the most closely watched. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com forecast non-farm payrolls to have increased by 225,000 workers compared with a decline of 105,000 in August, and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1 percent.




Click here for a comprehensive economic calendar




In the jobs report's final key component, average hourly earnings, a measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise a tame 0.3 percent.

Further, reports on new construction and consumer credit are also due.

graphicInvestors will keep their eyes on shares of Wal-Mart, Oracle and Dell Computer, which separately hold meetings with analysts this week.

Finally, the economic community will also watch for news from other centers, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which each, on Thursday, hold their own gatherings on interest rates. Back to top

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