For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT, Wednesday, October 18, 2000 CB00-176 HOUSING STARTS AND BUILDING PERMITS IN SEPTEMBER 2000 PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING STARTS Privately owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,530,000, according to estimates reported today by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of the Census. This is virtually unchanged (+/-6 percent) from the revised August rate of 1,525,000, but is 6 (+/-7 ) percent below the September 1999 rate of 1,628,000. Single-family housing starts in September 2000 were at a rate of 1,233,000; this is 1 (+/-6) percent below the August figure of 1,249,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 262,000. The September rate for units in buildings with two to four units was 35,000. During the first 9 months of this year, 1,232,300 housing units were started compared with 1,277,500 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 4 (+/-2) percent. BUILDING PERMITS The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing units authorized by building permits in September was 1,506,000. This is 1 (+/-1) percent above the revised August rate of 1,486,000, but is 3 (+/-1) percent below the September 1999 estimate of 1,553,000. Single-family authorizations in September 2000 were at a rate of 1,145,000; this is virtually unchanged (+/-1 percent) from the August figure of 1,140,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 298,000 in September. The September rate of permit-authorized units in buildings with two to four units was 63,000. During the first 9 months of this year, 1,208,700 housing units were authorized compared with 1,279,400 units for the same period in 1999. This is a decrease of 6 (+/-1) percent. The next press release is scheduled to be issued on Friday, November 17, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. EST. EXPLANATORY NOTES In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to- month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take 5 months to establish an underlying trend for total starts and 3 months for building permit authorizations. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as "2 (+/-3) percent above" appears in the text, this indicates the range (-1 to +5 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90- percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range contains zero, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease; that is, the change is not statistically significant. For any comparison cited without a confidence interval, the change is statistically significant. The April 2000 Current Construction Reports, C20/00-4, includes explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total housing starts and building permits are revised about +/-1 percent. Table 1. New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 1a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1999 - September 1628 1290 38 300 135 365 740 388 October 1636 1343 26 267 129 371 764 372 November 1663 1344 25 294 150 389 709 415 December 1769 1441 30 298 159 407 807 396 2000 - January 1744 1361 32 351 153 381 821 389 February 1822 1324 40 458 189 471 748 414 March 1630 1327 16 287 155 330 772 373 April 1652 1310 30 312 140 370 710 432 May 1591 1258 26 307 148 345 737 361 June 1571 1227 39 305 144 301 762 364 July (r) 1527 1201 43 283 144 318 674 391 August (r) 1525 1249 42 234 148 304 702 371 September (p) 1530 1233 35 262 160 296 671 403 Average RSE (%) 3 3 9 9 7 6 4 4 1b. Not seasonally adjusted 1998 1616.9 1271.4 15.7 26.9 302.9 148.5 330.5 743.0 394.9 1999 1666.5 1334.9 13.4 18.5 299.7 153.7 356.4 760.3 396.1 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 11 3 3 2 1 1 1999 First 9 months 1,277.5 1,026.7 10.2 15.1 225.6 118.4 265.1 585.7 308.4 2000 First 9 months 1,232.3 982.6 9.2 16.5 224.0 114.1 255.4 562.1 300.8 Average RSE (%) 1 1 7 12 3 4 2 1 1 1999 - September 143.3 112.5 0.9 2.6 27.4 12.3 34.5 62.8 33.7 October 145.4 115.8 1.4 1.1 27 12.3 37.5 64.9 30.7 November 127.9 102.1 0.9 1.2 23.7 12.5 30 54.5 30.9 December 115.7 90.2 0.9 1.2 23.4 10.6 23.8 55.1 26.1 2000 - January 105.2 80.5 1 0.7 23 8.1 15.9 55.4 25.8 February 122.1 90.2 0.9 1.7 29.4 9.9 22.9 58.1 31.2 March 137.2 115.3 0.7 0.5 20.7 11.9 25.4 68.4 31.5 April 151.8 121.5 1.3 1.4 27.5 12.2 35.8 65.6 38.1 May 155.3 125.7 1.4 0.7 27.5 14.2 35.6 70.2 35.3 June 148.5 118.7 1 3.2 25.6 14.2 31.4 68.2 34.6 July (r) 138 108.5 1 3.3 25.2 14.6 30.8 57.6 34.9 August (r) 142.7 117.1 1 2.9 21.6 14.3 30.3 62.8 35.2 September (p) 131.6 105.1 1 2 23.5 14.5 27.3 55.7 34.1 Average RSE (%) 3 3 11 13 9 7 6 4 4 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Table 2. Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits (Thousands of units. Detail may not add to total because of rounding.) In structures with -- Period Total North- Midwest South West 3 and 4 5 units east 1 unit 2 units units or more 2a. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - September 1553 1200 65 288 153 343 681 376 October 1636 1204 62 370 145 342 765 384 November 1678 1238 68 372 171 372 742 393 December 1683 1266 68 349 174 347 751 411 2000 - January 1762 1317 65 380 195 378 751 438 February 1661 1223 67 371 162 360 732 407 March 1597 1238 68 291 164 364 679 390 April 1559 1164 58 337 162 342 664 391 May 1511 1150 62 299 153 310 683 365 June 1528 1127 61 340 150 311 675 392 July 1511 1117 55 339 156 316 666 373 August (r) 1486 1140 66 280 140 300 644 402 September (p) 1506 1145 63 298 160 305 666 375 Average RSE (%) 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 2b. Not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1998 1612.3 1187.6 33.2 36.0 355.5 159.4 327.2 724.5 401.2 1999 1663.5 1246.7 32.5 33.3 351.1 164.9 345.4 748.9 404.3 Average RSE (%) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 1999 First 9 months 1,279.4 974.0 24.7 24.3 256.4 126.2 262.6 575.7 315.0 2000 First 9 months 1,208.7 918.6 22.4 24.6 243.1 121.9 248.5 533.6 304.7 Average RSE (%) (Z) (Z) 2 3 (Z) 2 1 1 1 1999 - September 137.3 103.1 3.2 2.6 28.3 13.4 32.2 58.3 33.4 October 137.6 97.6 2.8 3.0 34.2 12.8 31.3 62.3 31.2 November 125.6 90.3 2.6 3.1 29.6 13.6 29.4 55.0 27.6 December 120.9 84.8 2.4 2.8 30.9 12.3 22.1 55.9 30.6 2000 - January 104.8 76.7 1.8 1.8 24.6 10.5 16.4 50.4 27.6 February 115.1 85.9 2.5 2.2 24.5 9.1 20.4 56.5 29.1 March 147.0 116.3 2.7 3.1 24.8 14.1 32.2 64.8 36.0 April 135.1 104.1 2.4 2.5 26.0 14.2 31.6 56.3 33.1 May 145.3 116.0 2.5 3.2 23.6 15.1 32.3 63.1 34.8 June 151.9 112.4 3.1 3.0 33.4 15.7 30.2 65.1 40.9 July 128.3 96.4 2.2 2.2 27.5 13.9 27.7 54.5 32.2 August (r) 141.1 108.9 2.9 3.3 26.0 13.8 30.2 59.1 38.0 September (p) 128.0 93.8 2.3 3.1 28.8 13.7 26.7 56.0 31.6 Average RSE (%) 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2c. Not started at end of period - not seasonally adjusted (19,000 permit-issuing places) 1999 - September 145.6 93.2 3.6 48.8 15.9 21.2 80.6 27.9 2000 -July (r) 137.8 86.0 4.6 47.3 18.7 20.9 70.5 27.7 August (r) 137.2 85.1 4.7 47.4 17.7 19.8 69.2 30.4 September (p) 138.2 85.4 4.3 48.4 16.7 21 72.7 27.8 Average RSE (%) 3 4 8 5 13 8 4 6 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (X) Not applicable. (Z) Less than 50 units or less than 0.5 percent. Average relative standard error (Avg. RSE): Annual -- Avg. RSE for the last 2 years; Year to Date -- Avg. RSE for the current period and the same period last year; Monthly -- Avg. RSE for the latest 6 month period (January-June or July-December). Questions regarding these data may be directed to the Manufacturing and Construction Division, Residential Construction Branch, telephone(301)457-1321.