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Big business eyes election
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November 6, 2000: 8:24 p.m. ET
Major implications for drug makers, oil; less on line for auto, defense stocks
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NEW YORK (CNNfn) - There's plenty at stake beyond political power in Tuesday's U.S. election. Various industry sectors could also find themselves winners or losers depending on which candidate voters send to the White House.
Over the last month CNNfn.com has focused on seven key sectors of the economy and what analysts believe will be at stake for publicly-traded companies in those sectors at the ballot box. Below is a summary of what those experts believe will be the outcome from either a Democratic or Republican victory.
Oil industry
The implications for this sector appear to be clear. George Bush, the governor of oil-rich Texas, and his running mate, Dick Cheney, both have ties to the oil industry, and the Republican ticket advocates some key items on the oil industry's legislative agenda, such as opening up oil exploration on some now-protected federal lands.
 Meanwhile, Vice President Al Gore, with his strong support from environmentalists, has been a frequent critic of the oil industry as well as the greenhouse gases produced by burning of fossil fuels.
"I think Bush would be a clear favorite," Greg Valliere, political economist at Charles Schwab, said of the oil business.
Defense contractors
While the Republicans talk more about the need to increase defense spending, analysts think that there would be relatively little difference for defense contractors' top and bottom lines, no matter who wins Tuesday.  After a decline in defense outlays due to the end of the Cold War, spending on new equipment is projected to show significant gains the next five years, no matter who is elected, as weapons systems already approved are completed.
The head of one conservative defense industry think tank believes that Gore could actually be better for defense contractors than Bush because he hasn't committed to spending as much money on a yet-unproven missile defense system.
"He's not going to initiate another big program that has to be fit into a tight program," said Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute. "That's probably a net positive for contractors."
Technology
Technology executives are split right down the middle between Al Gore and George W. Bush, even though Gore has more of an established track record in dealing with technology issues than the Texas governor does.
Both candidates have virtually identical views on the issues that are important to computer hardware and software companies and both have drawn similar amounts of money and endorsements from prominent members of Silicon Valley.
While most tech executives try to stay out of Washington, two issues have caused tech companies to pay more attention to what goes on inside the beltway. One is the massive federal and state antitrust case against Microsoft Corp. (MSFT: Research, Estimates), which is now on appeal. The other is the issue of Internet privacy, which has come under increasing scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission and Congress.
Entertainment and media
The entertainment industry is one of the few sectors to give more campaign contributions to Gore than to Bush. But Gore has echoed conservatives' criticisms of the sex and violence in today's movies and television programs.
 Still, experts say come 2001, it will be business as usual for the companies behind cultural icons such as Madonna, Mickey Mouse and Eminem. Neither presidential candidate is seen doing more than waving an angry finger at show business, which in years past has been left to regulate itself.
Perhaps more important for the industry is how the next president comes down on issues such as foreign trade, copyright and free speech protections, antitrust and the regulation of the broadcast spectrum.
Autos
Republicans have traditionally put the brakes on Democrats' auto-regulation efforts. But it appears that the two parties will be traveling the same road more often on this issue in the future.
 Part of the change is due to the recall of 6.5 million Firestone tires, which have been tied to more than 100 U.S. deaths. In the wake of the tire problems, Congress, including Republicans, supported tougher safety regulations, including criminal charges for executives who conceal safety problems, and more teeth for federal safety regulators.
While Gore has been a greater friend of environmental regulations than Bush in many instances, such as the international Kyoto agreement on global warming, both Bush and the auto industry itself support the next level of automotive air pollution regulations, which are due to be implemented by the 2009 model year.
Tobacco
Cigarette makers are holding their breath, hoping for a Republican victory Tuesday.
Bush has said that if elected, he would end the Justice Department lawsuit filed earlier this year charging Big Tobacco with racketeering violations for misleading consumers in advertisements about the health effects of smoking.
 Meanwhile, Gore has repeatedly said he would support the lawsuit and pursue severe cigarette ad restrictions and FDA regulation of nicotine as an addictive drug.
Still, analysts believe that even the Democratic officials now in power realize that hefty penalties, enough to bankrupt tobacco companies, are not in the best interests of capitalism. Also, given the Florida verdict in July and the $246 billion settlement reached by tobacco companies and the states last year, anti-tobacco momentum has slowed.
Pharmaceuticals
Much of the hottest rhetoric of this election's campaigns has been about drugs. But for a change, it's been the prescription drugs, not illicit drugs, that have captured much of the attention.
 Gore has painted drug makers as corporate villains, accusing them of price gouging while at the same time racking up huge profits that outpace virtually every other industry. Gore, following earlier efforts by the White House on the prescription drug issue, would offer a broad new prescription-drug benefit under the government-run Medicare plan.
Bush, meanwhile, says he supports subsidized prescription drug benefits too, but he proposes a more free-market approach administered by private insurers -- a less-generous benefit plan that's also considered friendlier to the drug industry.
Wall Street
While different sectors might have different prospects under a Democratic or Republican administration, Wall Street firms are generally backing Bush, attracted by his tax-cut promises.
 According to a survey by Salomon Smith Barney Consulting Group, of the 134 money managers who were polled, 68 percent favored Bush, 13 percent chose Gore and 19 percent, or one-fifth of the managers, indicated that neither of the candidates would have a positive impact on the markets.
The theory goes that a tax-cut plan would put more money in consumers' hands, hence more money would show up in corporate profits. That would ultimately translate into more money flowing into Wall Street.
It could also help fund managers if workers are allowed to invest some portion of their Social Security savings in the market, a proposal made by Bush but opposed by Gore.
The economy
Eight years ago President Clinton was elected with a campaign focus summed up by the phrase "It's the economy, stupid." And voters, both Democrats and Republicans, have kept that focus for this year's close election.
But even though nearly three-quarters of voters describe the economy as good or excellent, there isn't as much agreement on which candidate's plans would continue the current economic expansion.
 Gore's promises of spending while keeping the budget-surplus cookie jar within easy reach would ensure that the surplus is used to pay down debt -- something that international investors like to see when debating whether to sink their money into investments such as Treasury bonds or dollar-denominated securities.
Bush, meanwhile, pledges tax relief to stimulate growth by giving consumers more disposable income to pay for goods and services -- while keeping the budget-surplus cookie jar even higher up on the shelf – which would encourage consumer spending, something stock investors want to see because it helps fuel growth for companies. 
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GOP gushes over oil - Oct. 9, 2000
Presidential election won't gore defense stocks say analysts - Oct. 12, 2000
Candidates take backseat to auto regulation - Oct. 19, 2000
Gore has money edge, but Hollywood seen unaffected by presidential race - Oct. 16, 2000
Tobacco lights up with Bush - Oct. 23, 2000
Pharmaceutical makers portrayed as the villains of 2000 campaign - Oct. 26, 2000
Bush winning Wall Street - Nov. 2, 2000
Mark an X for economy - Nov. 6, 2000
Investors favor Bush - Nov. 6, 2000
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