NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. investors look to keep the ball rolling this week, hoping stocks keep outrunning negative economic news, as Wall Street trudges through what many expect will be a lackluster holiday shopping season and a poor fourth quarter.
A variety of telling economic indicators this week -- including new home sales and consumer confidence data - should give investors some indication of the economy's direction.
"If we have had (a recession) or are almost out of a recession, you can see this light at the end of the tunnel," Peter Mancuso, New York Stock Exchange specialist, Performance Specialist Group, told CNNfn's Market Call. "The opportunity for moves on the upside are pretty high."
Wall Street closed last week with modest gains, building on a general upward trend that has materialized since the lows of Sept. 21, despite rising joblessness and a drop in consumer spending.
But investors had less trading time last week, due to the Thanksgiving holiday. On Thursday, markets were closed all day, while on Friday, a shortened session ended at 1 p.m. Friday was the smallest volume day of the year.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 92.7 points, or 0.94 percent, at 9,959.71. The Nasdaq composite finished the week nearly flat, up 4.4 points, or just 0.23 percent, at 1,903. The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed out the week at 1,150.30, representing a gain of 11.6 points, or 1.0 percent.
Investors wanting a sneak peak at Americans' commitment to spending this holiday season got a mixed verdict on "Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving.
Named for the hope of retailers that day-after-Thanksgiving sales will put them "in the black," the day took on extra significance in an economy looking for consumer spending to get things rolling again. Early reports showed consumers were out buying Friday, taking advantage of some sales, but doing so very selectively, which didn't particularly bode well.
The volatile oil market also played a role in last week's activity, after Russia and Norway offered only mild concessions to oil cartel OPEC's plea for non-OPEC nations to join the fight against sliding oil prices.
The United States is facing the worst economic slump in a decade, exacerbated by the Sept. 11 attacks.
Many analysts say that the fourth quarter is basically a wash, with negative results widely expected and built in to equity market movement, but that looking toward the first-half of 2002, the picture starts to look a little better.
"This is a very critical period for the economy. The leadership is where it should be, with technology moving forward. I think we're in a turning point. That's what the market is sending a message about," Ned Riley, chief investment strategist, State Street Global Advisors, told CNNfn's Street Sweep. (379K WAV) (379K AIFF)
Consumer action in focus
On Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its measure of consumer confidence for November. The survey's index is expected to show a rise to 86.5 from 85.5 in October.
On Thursday, the Census Bureau releases its findings on durable goods orders for October. Economists expect a rise of 1.8 percent after a decline of 8.5 percent in September.
The Census Bureau will also release its new home sales data for October. Economists are looking for a decline to 850,000 from 864,000 in October.
Friday will bring the first revision of third-quarter gross domestic product numbers. Economists expect GDP to have declined 0.8 percent, down from the 0.4 percent fall initially reported.
Also on Friday, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Association releases its November index of manufacturing activity. The index is expected to show a decline to 45.5 from 46.2 in October.
Kmart among the names reporting
A few companies are expected to release quarterly earnings reports this week, including Kmart and Brocade Communications.
Two big retailers are due out with results. On Tuesday, Kmart (KM: Research, Estimates) is expected to have lost 26 cents per share in the latest quarter, showing an 85 percent decline from the 14 cents per share earned one year ago.
Barnes & Noble (BKS: Research, Estimates) reports Thursday. Analysts expect earnings of 3 cents per share, a rise of 175 percent from the 4 cent-per-share loss of one year earlier.
On Wednesday, two hardware and equipment names are due to release results. Brocade Communications (BRCD: Research, Estimates) is expected to report earnings of 4 cents per share, a 63 percent decline from the 11 cents per share earned one year earlier.
Credence Systems (CMOS: Research, Estimates) is forecast to have lost 37 cents per share, a 138 percent decline from the 96 cents per share earned a year ago. 
|
