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Two for '02
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January 3, 2002: 7:59 p.m. ET
Techs continue their rally, the problem with Kmart and Kodak, and tips on managing the Bobby Bowden Way.
By Andy Serwer
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - SHAZAAM!!! Take that 2001! We got a whole new attitude going down in 2002!!! Stocks will go up every day. ("Just kidding," as my four year old would say!) Still, it's nice to sound off on a good note. Dow was up 98 points to 10,172 while the Naz climbed 65 to 2,044 (up 3.3 percent). Hey, watch me, Al Hirt (Honey in the Horn! Remember "Java"? Great tune!), I mean Andy Serwer on CNN, CNN Headline News, and CNNfn. READ Loose Change. Here's wazzup:
STOCKYARD: Happy New Year!!! Great to see you! Hey buddy!!! Well, stocks, particularly those of the tech variety, took off today. Dow hit a four-month high. Leading the way were chippies (off the old block!): SOXX (Phillie Chip Index) climbed 8 percent and is now up 50 percent since 9/21. Intel (most active stock in the world---91 mil shares), AMD (AMD: up $2.98 to $19.37, Research, Estimates), National (NSM: up $2.66 to $34.59, Research, Estimates), etc. were all up strongly. So were Cisco (CSCO: up $1.53 to $20.76, Research, Estimates), EMC (EMC: up $1.79 to $16.59, Research, Estimates), MSFT (MSFT: up $2.19 to $69.23, Research, Estimates), NetAp (ANA: up $0.20 to $23.70, Research, Estimates), and Brocade (BRCD: up $3.54 to $39.01, Research, Estimates). Ariba (ARBA: up $0.89 to $7.34, Research, Estimates) strong too--go figure!... Losers (so why don't you kill me---actually Beck's "Mutations" album is pretty good): Peregrine (PRGN: down $5.24 to $9.27, Research, Estimates). Amgen (AMGN: down $2.06 to $54.34, Research, Estimates). Sirius (SIRI: down $1.42 to $9.46, Research, Estimates). (Bethany?) And Kmart (KMT: up $0.65 to $40.10, Research, Estimates) continued to sink.... UNEMPLOYMENT WAS UP: No matter. Two things going on. First of all, cold weather finally came to the Northeast. Second point is that layoffs are always a lagging indicator. Companies don't layoff in the beginning of a slowdown, they try to hold off as long as they can...finally they give, often as the end is in sight. Let's hope that's what's happening here!
GOD AND MAN AT FLORIDA STATE: (Remember William F. Buckley's "God and Man at Yale: The Superstitions of 'Academic Freedom'"? I didn't think ya did!!!) Coaching legend Bobby Bowden has a new one of those management/coaching books out. It's called "The Bowden Way: 50 Years of Leadership Wisdom," and while it might not sell so well in Gainesville, I think it's pretty damn interesting. I recently spent some time with Coach Bobby, as well as his son Steve (a non coaching/TV son), who co-wrote the book. (Steve is interesting in his own right, a professor, college dean, religion and philosophy type---who enjoys a good football game as much as anyone!) It was a beautiful December day down in Tallahassee, 'noles were playing Georgia Tech--last game of the year, pretty disappointing for both squads, as they both had higher aspirations. Visited with Bobby in his office and we talked about, well, about his philosophy of life!!! Bobby in my mind has inherited Bear Bryant's coaching mantle. The weathered old, down-home Southern football coach who may sound all corn bread but is wilier than a (add your favorite Southern simile here). Yes, Bobby's taken his licks over the years, but he lives in an era of MUCH greater scrutiny. Bobby talked about how much the game has changed in his 50 years of coaching. He talked about delegating---oh yes, he delegates tremendously. The book is homespun, axiomatic, and in the end a helluva lot more interesting to read than 99 percent of the books in this genre. I mean who would you rather read? Pat Riley or Bobby Bowden?!?!? (I didn't ask you Spurrier!!!) Anyway, it's been a good week for Coach Bobby: Noles knocked off Virginia Tech in the Gator bowl. Bobby tied the Bear for career wins, and his book has cracked the WSJ's best seller list. I appreciate the time visiting with you, Bobby and Steve. Thanks!
TWO COMPANIES, TWO PROBLEMS: KMART: Pru analyst put a 'sell' on it today, and said he wouldn't be surprised if it went chapter 11. Stock dropped 17 percent to $4 and change, where it was in 1983! They've tried all kinds of stuff: new management, Martha, bluelight.com...but this company has two big problems: Wal-Mart (WMT: down $0.07 to $57.98, Research, Estimates) and Target (TGT: up $0.15 to $41.15, Research, Estimates) .... KODAK: Explain to me why this company will exist in 10 years, make that five years, make that three years? Everyone is buying digital cameras now. Everyone. I think the company has a "digital strategy," but I'm not sure I buy it. EK (EK: up $0.06 to $29.37, Research, Estimates) is back at 1987 levels, yet this DJIA stock has a $9 billion market cap. This company's two big problems: Digital photography (and as if that weren't enough), Fuji. What do you think about these two?
QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Best place in Carribean or Gulf of Mex to take a family spring vacation? Send in your nominations!!!
SILICON VALLEY LIVES!: Jamis (I am the Walrus) MacNiven, proprietor of Bucks of Woodside is one of my favorite people. Here's what he says: "Craig Johnson, the founder of Venture Law, always has a New Year's bash here at Buck's on the January 1st. Craig, Guy Kawasaki, Founder of Garage Technology Ventures, and others joined me in proclaiming that 2002 will be the year in which Silicon Valley will be back like a lion. It seems to me that Churchill, Napoleon and even Nixon were tossed out on their keesters only to come roaring back with a big second act. Remarkable progress is being made with 3D silicon wafers (see Scientific American this month) with genetic engineering (for good or bad) and with transportation (BART to the South Bay and Dean Kamen). Back in the 50's we envisioned the world of 2001 looking like a Buck Rogers movie but the only thing we got out of it was a set of grocery store doors which opened automatically and NO x-ray glasses. Damn! The world of 2050 will either be Strom Thurmond picking through the ashes saying 'I told you so!' (unlikely) or an increasingly seamless effort to extract more fun including a bull run on things ironic to keep us in balance. As the ozone disappears we need to make a concerted effort to replace it with irony thereby confounding both ourselves and our critics and vice versa. I think Groucho was right when he said, 'You think you're confused, I'm confused and this is my movie.'" Well I hope so Jamis (or, I'll have what he's smoking!).
Loose Change
Man on the moon looks down. Sees Paula. Sees Greta. Has nothing against Greta. Sees switch. Acknowledges alleged $ differential. Deduces that CNN got the better of the deal. Man on the moon stops looking at Earth. Goes back to eating cheese.... So Peter (Somebody!) Cohan says we may see some panic buying now which would push stocks up to the end of the month. Then, he writes, "watch out for a rapid sell-off beginning at the end of March as the April effect -- a concept introduced by New York Post columnist Beth Piskora in March 2000 -- takes hold."... More Football. (Hey, this is the time!) This time from thunder Dan: "I was in Miami Sunday for the Falcons/Dolphins, and was shocked at the huge number of Terp fans in their turtle gear swarming south beach. Gotta say, the only team with any speed that Maryland lost to this year was FSU. Last night, slow feet spelled doom against Florida's pro wideouts. Yeah, was telling some buds just give me one meaningful bowl game that is competitive (one guy tried to say that the 4th quarter of LSU/Illinois was too close to call...bunk). Actually, a playoff, PLEASE, an abbreviated version of what we do in college roundball. [As for tonight] I'm taking Miami. I love Crouch (isn't he an amazing.....with quicks?), and he may well establish some sort of ground game. Even if the Huskers have something to prove, Dorsey has too many weapons (just like Grossman has). No matter who they've played, Nebraska corners haven't seen anything like what they'll see tonight. Blitzing won't help. The 'Canes have the largest and fastest twin tackles I have ever seen." And that's the TRUF!!! 
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