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Xigris set to be blockbuster
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January 9, 2002: 4:30 p.m. ET
Lilly says 2001 sales of blood disease drug are in line with expectations.
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Drugmaker Eli Lilly and Co. announced early sales figures for blood disease treatment Xigris in line with its expectations, giving analysts a clearer picture of sales projections for the potential blockbuster drug.
Lilly on Wednesday said sales for the drug through Dec. 31 were about $21 million, which is also close to a number or analysts' forecasts.
Xigris is the only approved treatment for sepsis, a blood condition brought on by severe infection that can cause organ failure. About 215,000 Americans die of sepsis each year.
The drug is expected to be a strong revenue-driver for Lilly (LLY: down $0.33 to $75.32, Research, Estimates), which last year lost exclusivity on blockbuster depression treatment Prozac.
On Nov. 21, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Xigris for the treatment of adult patients with severe sepsis who have an especially high risk of dying from the disease. In trials, the drug reduced mortality in higher-risk patients by 13 percent.
Mark Striker, drug analyst for Salomon Smith Barney, estimated total 2001 sales for the drug of $20 million, and he expects sales to jump to $400 million in 2002.
He said he believes a solid Xigris sales ramp-up is critical to Lilly's 2002 stock performance.
Tony Butler, drug analyst at Lehman Bros., forecasted 2001 revenue of $22 million to $26 million and also saw sales rising to $400 million in 2002.
Len Yaffe, analyst with Banc of America Securities, predicted $30 million in 2001 Xigris sales, but said if actual sales came in below that level it's not really important.
"What matters with Xigris is long term, not how many patients get treated in the first six weeks," Yaffe said.
He is looking for Xigris revenue of $475 million in 2002.
Also predicting 2002 Xigris sales of $400 million are Bear Stearns analyst Joseph Riccardo, Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown analyst Barbara Ryan, and Morgan Stanley's Jami Rubin.
Lilly said it will be working with the FDA "to institute post-approval trials which will include a study of the efficacy of Xigris in adult patients with severe sepsis who have a lower risk of death and a study in pediatric patents with severe sepsis." 
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