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Markets & Stocks  
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The Hoosier curse
An Indiana hoops title could spook stocks while Kentucky may bring out the bulls.
March 21, 2002: 12:49 PM EST
By Mark McLaughlin, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Sweet Sixteen round of the men's NCAA tournament is loaded with former champions. In fact, five of the remaining schools have won a combined 28 titles.

With that in mind, we've decided to borrow a page from the Super Bowl stocks indicator and figure out what a win by one of the five multi-winners: UCLA, Kentucky, Indiana, Duke or Kansas might mean for the stock market.

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If you are long stocks, Kentucky would be the choice pick for a strong 2002. In the seven years that the Wildcats have taken home a title, the Standard & Poor's 500 has gained an average of 16.02 percent. Aiding the UK run were titles won in 1996 and 1998, during the heart of the latest bull market, and a monster 38 percent return in 1958, when tech stocks like Texas Instruments and Fairchild Camera soared in the rush to send the U.S. into space.

A Kentucky win would also bode well for the New York Yankees, who have followed every Wildcat title with one of their own in the World Series.

For consistency, UCLA is the team to circle. The Bruins won 10 championships in the 60s and 70s, during the heyday of the Nifty Fifty blue-chip stocks, including a remarkable seven in a row from 1967 through 1973. Stocks returned an average of 7.9 percent during that run. Adding the S&P's 34.1 percent gain in 1995, the market has returned an average 10.28 percent in UCLA's championship years.

Short sellers have to be pulling for Indiana to knock off Duke in Thursday night's South Regional semifinals. The S&P has lost an average of 2.05 percent in the five years that the Hoosiers have cut down the nets, including an ugly 15 percent loss way back in 1940 and a tumble of 9.7 percent in the recession year of 1981.

Picking defending champ Duke won't help your portfolio much either, as stocks have gained just 5.92 percent in the three years the Blue Devils have taken home the championship. That result includes an ugly 13 percent slide in the S&P last year.

Another tourney favorite, Midwest No. 1 seed Kansas, looks like a stronger choice as stocks have gone up 12.08 percent in the two years the Jayhawks have won.

Maybe a second title for one-hit wonders Arizona or Connecticut could revive the sickly stock market. Both teams won titles during the last bull market - Arizona in 1997, when the S&P increased 31 percent, and Connecticut in 1999, when the market climbed 19.5 percent.  Top of page






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