NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A dismal era comes to an end this week when investors hope to close the door on five straight quarters of falling corporate profits.

When the first quarter expires March 31, analysts expect the start of the first three-month period of rising profits since the end of 2000.

But before that happens, the stock market must weather a week heavy in economic data and the financial pre-announcements that companies make at a quarter's end.

"I think the next couple of weeks you'll see more upside surprises," said Rick Campagna, managing director at Shaker Investments, with about $2.3 billion under management. "The misses are minor and when they beat, it's by a lot."

Campagna's right. So far, 751 companies have made pre-announcements on their first-quarter results. Of those, 363 have warned they would come short of expectations, 167 have said they will meet targets and 221 readied investors for upside surprises, according to earnings tracking firm First Call.

That's an improvement from this time last year, when 598 companies had already warned, 145 were on target and only 113 made positive pre-announcements.

Put another way, this year's ratio of negative to positive pre-announcement has fallen to 1.6 from 5.3 at this time in 2001.

"The rate of negative warnings is slowing," said First Call analyst Ken Perkins, who added that the next three weeks will be the busiest period for companies offering an early look at their books.

Those first-quarter profits, on average, are expected to have fallen 8.6 percent from the previous year. But second-quarter earnings are expected to rise 8.8 percent before a 30.2 percent third-quarter gain and a 41.6 percent surge in the fourth quarter, according to First Call.

Mostly upbeat pre-announcements last week from companies such as Procter & Gamble (PG: Research, Estimates), Royal Caribbean (RCL: Research, Estimates) and Dial (DIAL: Research, Estimates) were not enough to lift stocks, as investors worried that steeper borrowing costs will stall an economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.69 percent last week, narrowing its year-to-date gain to 4 percent. Down 4.6 percent the year, the Nasdaq fell nearly 1 percent over the past five sessions.

The new week begins with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who speaks Monday in Washington to the National Association for Business Economics. The speech comes six days after the Fed stood pat on interest rates but prepared investors for a possible rate hike this year.

But with the federal funds rate for overnight lending at 1.75 percent following 11 rate cuts last year, John Forelli, portfolio manager at John Hancock Funds, does not expect higher borrowing costs to hammer stocks.

"The Fed may boost rates, but they'll be doing so from levels that, from a historical perspective, are unrealistically low," Forelli said. "Even if they boost rates a half point over the next six months, I don't think that should shake the market."

Maybe the week's economic data will. February existing home sales, due Monday, are expected to have slipped to an annual rate of 5.60 million, according to the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, from a record 6.04 million annual rate in January.

Durable goods orders for February are seen rising 1 percent following a 2.6 percent gain in January. The figure comes out Tuesday, the same day that the Conference Board's March consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 96 from 94.1 in February.

New home sales are also seen rising. February home sales, due Wednesday, are expected to have advanced to an annual rate of 880,000 from 823,000 in January.

Thursday brings a final look at the economy during the final three months of 2001. The government's final reading on the fourth-quarter gross domestic product is expected to show growth of 1.4 percent, identical to the last preliminary reading, a strong showing for a period that began just three weeks after the September terror attacks.

On Friday, U.S. markets are closed for the Good Friday holiday. But that won't stop the stream of economic data. The personal income and spending reports for February also come out that day. Both income and spending are expected to have risen.

Only a handful of companies are due to report results this week. Morgan Stanley (MWD: Research, Estimates), the last major brokerage house to report its first-quarter results, is expected to post a profit of 69 cents a share, according to the First Call consensus, down from 94 cents a year ago.

The slump in stock underwriting and merger and acquisition fees hit quarterly profits at Goldman Sachs (GS: Research, Estimates) and Lehman Brothers (LEH: Research, Estimates), both of which reported their earnings last week. Only Bear Stearns (BSC: Research, Estimates) saw a gain in profits, as the company benefited from bond underwriting.

Also this week, drug store Walgreen (WAG: Research, Estimates) is expected to see its quarterly profits rise to 32 cents a share from 28 cents a year ago.

This Sunday marks a bittersweet anniversary. On March 24, 2000, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose to a record close above 1,527. It's down 25 percent since then.