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News
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This summer's box office web
Franchise films may rule this summer, with Sony making the biggest bets.
May 2, 2002: 1:23 PM EDT
By Joseph Lee, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Poor Spider Man. This is the summer he finally makes his big-screen debut, but the comic book superhero has to go up against a young Jedi knight, two alien-fighting "Men in Black" and America's sweetheart going "Full Frontal."

It will be a film-jammed summer, with the Hollywood marketing machine in high gear with a full load of sequels, prequels and so-called franchise films on tap, industry experts said. The major movie studios -- as well as their investors -- aren't taking it lightly.

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"It's too important of a period" for the studios to ignore, said Paul Degarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations, which tracks box-office receipts. No major studio wants to just "dump a movie in the summer," he said, noting the 15-week period from Memorial Day weekend through Labor Day chalks up a whopping 40 percent of Hollywood's annual ticket sales at the box office.

Degarabedian said many of last summer's blockbuster hits -- such as "The Fast and Furious" and "Legally Blond" -- were plot-driven, but this year, Tinseltown is taking a shine to the power of its stars. Movies with Hollywood heavyweights like Tom Cruise, Julia Roberts and Mel Gibson are all expected to flex their muscles at the box office this summer.

Revenue is expected to rise about 10 percent this summer, he said, after hitting a record of nearly $3.1 billion last summer.

Box office is immune to weak economy

Last year's slump in the economy and the events of Sept. 11 had a relatively small impact on ticket sales, industry analysts say, with some noting people actually have spent more on movies and other leisure activities -- especially those they can do as a family -- since the attacks more than seven months ago.

"The box office is pretty much immune to any up or down swings in the economy because going to the movies is still a relatively inexpensive endeavor," Dergarabedian said.

Box office receipts from Sept. 1 through the end of last year actually rose almost 6 percent to about $2.5 billion, he said. "Fewer people want to travel after that (Sept. 11)," he said, "so they just plan events locally and go to the movies with friends and family. "That way they travel in their mind, and that's relatively safe."

Hollywood's new business method

The summer of 2002 will also bring a bundle of sequels, prequels and "franchise films" based on comic books, science fiction and other bits of popular culture.

David Miller at the investment firm Sanders Morris Harris Group said Tinseltown has adopted a business method from the fast-food industry -- never miss out on a franchise opportunity.

Sequels were once viewed as cheap and quick knock-offs of original hit movies, but in recent years, franchises such as "Jurassic Park", "Rush Hour" and "The Mummy" have come to mean big box-office success for the film studios.

 
Sony will release its screen version of the decades-old origin of the Marvel Comics superhero "Spider-Man" May 3.

"Studios want franchisable pictures," said Miller, adding that studios have even been shooting movies -- and sequels for subsequent release -- all at once to cut costs.

New Line Cinema, the producer of the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy, filmed all three installments simultaneously for a cool $270 million -- a figure that would have been three times that had the films been shot separately, according to Mark Ordesky, executive producer of "Lord."

"It's a great value for the studios to hire the same crew, same actors, and film all of them at the same time for the price of one," Miller said. He noted that Warner Bros. adopted New Line's approach for its two "Matrix" sequels, hoping to save money and effort in the long run.

Will 'Spider' swing to the top?

As for Sony's latest release, "Spider-Man," a film based on the flagship character of Marvel Comics, the film studio and its production partner Marvel Productions are nodding toward doing a sequel, even before the first installment opens Friday, according to the industry newspaper Daily Variety.

The paper said Sony will reteam the creative forces -- actors Tobey Maguire, Kristen Dunst and director Sam Raimi -- from the original film and begin production early next year.

 
Tom Cruise (above) teams up with director Steven Spielberg in this summer's "Minority Report," a sci-fi thriller about psychic cops who arrest killers before crimes are committed.

The Sony movie will be Spider-Man's first appearance on the big screen. Even though he is one of the best-known comic book heros, it took nearly a decade and a half-dozen licensing lawsuits -- involving big-name entertainment companies like MGM and Viacom -- before Sony was given the green light to bring the superhero to the silver screen, according to Entertainment Weekly magazine.

Miller at Sanders Morris Harris said "Spider-Man" should have a solid opening weekend, with an estimated $40 million to $50 million in domestic ticket sales, but he questioned whether the film would have legs.

Martin Grove of the Hollywood Reporter said "Spider-Man" has a two-week window before Fox's "Star Wars: Episode II: Attack of the Clones" opens on May 16 -- a rarity in this summer's crowded release schedule.

Sony is betting on a busy summer

Sony, alone, is scheduled to release nine films this summer.

Though it's hard to predict box-office results before the films open, with potential blockbuster hits like "Stuart Little 2" and "Spider-Man," Dergarabedian said Sony "could have a great-looking summer."

But Miller argued that the studio could end up competing with itself.

For example, Sony is scheduled to release "Mr. Deeds," starring Adam Sandler, a remake of the 1936 comedy classic "Mr. Deeds Goes to Town," on June 28, the same weekend 20th Century Fox's sci-fi thriller "Minority Report" with Tom Cruise opens -- and that's only five days before the release of the sequel to "Men in Black" with Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith, also from Sony.

The saturation could get even worse in July and August, industry experts said.

On Aug. 2, Julia Roberts will go "Full Frontal" in Miramax's satirical comedy about people who love movies. That flick will go head-to-head against Sony's "XXX," a film about extreme sports athlete Xander "XXX" Cage. Plus, the creator of "Sixth Sense" will bring out his latest film, "Signs," based on the crop-circle phenomenon, starring Mel Gibson.

Last summer, many big-budget films were released so close together that many became "one-week wonders." That could happen again if you and your friends don't recommend some of these blockbuster wannabes to others.

"The best marketing, promotion out there these days for any film is the positive word-of-mouth," Degarabedian said.

Given the high costs of these big-budget summer movies, Sony could either end up with a dominant market share for the summer or smaller profit margins, Miller said.

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Fox is owned by News Corp. (NWS: Research, Estimates) Miramax and Touchstone are both subsidiaries of Disney (DIS: Research, Estimates). New Line Cinema and Warner Bros., as well as CNN/Money, are all owned by AOL Time Warner. (AOL: Research, Estimates)

Sony stock has jumped nearly 20 percent this year while Disney has gained 13 percent, News Corp. is off 15 percent and AOL Time Warner has tumbled 38 percent. The S&P 500 index is off about 6 percent for the year.  Top of page






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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.