NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The (marketing) Force is still with "Star Wars," but it appears to be weakening.

The return of the movie series after a 20-year hiatus in 1999 grossed $431 million at the box office and close to $2 billion in merchandise sales. But those numbers fell shy of what industry analysts, producer Lucasfilm, and licensees including Hasbro and PepsiCo had expected for "Episode I: The Phantom Menace." And "Episode II: Attack of the Clones," which opened during the first few minutes of Thursday, won't benefit from a generation of pent-up Star Wars demand, but it will have to battle a surprisingly strong marketing machine known as "Spider-Man."

"We're trying to be realistic," said Howard Roffman, president of licensing for Lucasfilm. "There was something unique about Episode I."

"It's a bit of an uphill battle," added Bret Jordan, an analyst at Advest Inc. who follows Hasbro. "It was over-licensed pretty significantly the last time."

Hasbro (HAS: up $0.21 to $15.56, Research, Estimates), the main licensee of Star Wars toys, set expectations for sales from Episode I much too high, missing the mark and leaving retailers with action-figure overload, Jordan said. This time the toymaker is mum on estimates in hopes of keeping estimates low and surprising Wall Street analysts on the upside.

Those analysts have forecast sales nearing $350 million for Hasbro's "Attack of the Clones" line, well below the $500 million the company grossed in 1999 for "Phantom Menace" toys, said John Miller, vice president of research and portfolio manager for Ariel Fund, which is a large holder of Hasbro shares.

Lucasfilm expects merchandise sales to hit $1.6 billion for Episode II, down about 20 percent from Episode I. The privately-held, Marin, Calif., film company cut the number of licensed merchandisers to 50 from 80, and cut the product line in half. In addition to Hasbro, Lego, Scholastic (SCHL: up $0.57 to $48.50, Research, Estimates), Ballantine Books and Random House are among the big-name licensed merchandisers offering Star Wars toys and books.

"Things got carried away [with Episode I] -- there was tremendous hype," Roffman said. "It was over-shipped and over-licensed."

The Star Wars franchise has made about $7 billion in product sales since the original movie debuted in 1977, Roffman said. "The Lion King" ranks a distant second, pulling in a little more than a third of that total.

"The potential is there to reach the $2 billion level again [for Episode II], " said Charles Riotto, president of the International Licensing Industry Merchandisers Association. "Whether they will or not remains to be seen."

Hasbro's signature action figures, this time returning with bendable joints and a magnetic re-creation of "The Force," have been selling well since their April 26 debut.

"We expect to be very successful, we are very optimistic," said Martin Pidel, Hasbro's vice president of marketing for Star Wars. "It was the No. 1 boys line in 1999 and we believe it will be in 2002 as well."

Hasbro's stake is fairly high, considering most entertainment property deals return 12 to 14 percent of sales to the film company. The contract for Star Wars could be even higher, Riotto suggested. Advest's Jordan estimates Hasbro is on the hook to Lucasfilms for $140 million in guaranteed royalties. If sales bring in analysts' estimated $350 million, it would mean Lucasfilm could garner about 40 percent of revenue.

"It's a reasonably big ticket they are going to have to write just to show up," Jordan said.

Whether or not sales of Obi-Wan Kenobi figures meet their goals, it's unlikely merchandise sales will collapse, as they did for, say, Pokemon toys when the fad faded.

"In a very anxious time as this, people gravitate in droves to superhero-type stories," said Mark DiMassimo, who runs a brand marketing firm. "It's entertainment Prozac. People identify with characters that will overcome human weaknesses -- and they are going to want to take a piece of that home with them."