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Commentary > The Hays Files
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Summer shopping spurt?
Warm weather could bring happy days for retailers, despite lingering concerns about jobs
June 11, 2002: 2:30 PM EDT
By Kathleen Hays, CNN/Money Contributing Columnist

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If you're a shoe person, you know how irresistible they can be: the color of the leather, the shape of the toe, the height of the heel create infinite variations and endless opportunities for fresh purchases. But even if you're not, shoes matter because they make up one of the categories that led to a pretty nice pop in weekly chain store sales last week.

The BTM-UBSW retail chain store sales index jumped by 1.6 percent in the week ended June 8, according to the latest report from Mike Niemira of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. Retailers describe sales as on to above plan, led by pent-up demand for summer clothing and lawn and garden supplies. Thank goodness for sunshine!

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"Shoes were also cited as one of the stronger categories for the week," Mike notes, adding that customer traffic picked up as the "shopping bug" hit the consumer. See? I'm clearly not the only one.

This was the biggest weekly jump in Mike's index since May 4, when it rose by 2.1 percent. He calculates that chain store sales are on track for a 5 percent increase in "comp store" sales -- that's sales at stores open for at least a year. If June sales do grow at a 5 percent year-to-year rate, it would be the biggest monthly gain since March, when they increased by 6.4 percent year-to-year.

Good news, indeed, because there are a lot of worries about shoppers right now. Unemployment has edged down a bit and jobs are growing a little, but some economists are nervous that with the stock market struggling to keep its head above water, with global tensions running high, and with income growth sluggish, consumers may get worried and stop buying as much stuff. That wouldn't be good for manufacturers that have barely gotten to the point where they are ready to stop laying off workers and start hiring again.

Retail sales for the month of May are due out Thursday. Of course this is a much broader measure than the chain store number because it includes auto sales, restaurants, gas stations, etc. Retail sales are expected to decline about two-tenths of a percent, but excluding autos, to rise four-tenths of a percent.

But a weakish retail sales report for May may not be as troublesome as it might have been, given what looks like some pickup in shopping in June. A good example of this: Wal-Mart saying that its same-store sales in June are on track for an increase in the upper part of its 5 to 7 percent range. Jon Lonski of Moody's Investor's Service writes this morning that this points to chain store sales rising by at least a 4 percent yearly rate in June.

Lonski also notes that April's 4.3 percent yearly increase in spending was far above a 1.5 percent yearly increase in wages and salaries for the month, due mainly to lower taxes and higher government transfer payments. He says that can't last, and that the slow pace of job creation leaves consumers vulnerable.

My advice? Don't worry, go shopping!, to paraphrase Bobby McFerrin's song of a few years back. The summer sandal sirens are calling.


Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.  Top of page






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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.