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Commentary > The Dobbs Report
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The July Surprise
What would a stock-market rebound mean for the next election?
July 29, 2002: 7:30 PM EDT
By Lou Dobbs, Lou Dobbs Moneyline

NEW YORK (CNN) - What if we're looking at a bottom in this market? I ask what if, because I'm certainly not certain. But if it is, in a few months at election time, this will be called the July surprise, because it upset a lot of partisan rhetoric and planning. Here's a recent sampling: The difference between President Bush and Bill Clinton is that Clinton actually tried to do something about corporate corruption, according to the former president, at least. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin says we should roll back the tax cuts of last year. Former vice-presidential candidate Senator Joe Lieberman says that the Bush Administration has unraveled eight years of fiscal discipline in 18 months. And former presidential candidate and Vice President Al Gore just plain doesn't like this administration, understandably.

And we've heard for weeks and weeks now, the pundits clucking about whether a slow economy and depressed stock market would sink the Republicans come November. Those same pundits, with Democrats and Republicans looking for new jobs clucking in their ears, have been calling for resignations... SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt should resign, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill should resign... apparently because in the minds of their critics, O'Neill doesn't know what he's doing, and in Pitt's case because he does know what he's doing.

If this does turn out to be a market bottom, Messrs O'Neill and Pitt will have extended job security... and so will the vast majority of the incumbents in Congress and the Senate. And they can shamelessly continue the political game unabated into the new year. Even for a market bottom, that's a high price... but one I'm willing to pay.  Top of page




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