NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Nasty jobs data (a "jobless recovery" may make sense to the economists, but for most of us, it's an oxymoron) combined with a big drop in factory orders (off 2.4 percent in June) knocked the Dow down 193.49 to 8,313.13 and the Nasdaq down 32.12 to 1,247.88. The yield on 2-year T-bills fell below 2 percent for the first time ever.
People are talking about the dreaded double-dip, and they don't mean two helpings of something tasty. Or maybe the supposedly disconnected economy and stock market are actually joined at the hip. And no, Bugs Bunny and crew aren't helping matters any. (See below.)
STOCK STUFF. AOL Time Warner (AOL: Research, Estimates) fell 63 cents to 10.38 on fears that AOL's accounting issues may reach out and touch (am I getting my communications companies confused?) the old Time Warner. There's the Washington Post stuff about odd advertising deals. But there's also those capitalized costs that strike some as reminiscent of WorldCom. And then there's the merger accounting -- always a tricky thing at best.
Not that Mickey Mouse is helping the market either. Disney (DIS: Research, Estimates) dropped $1.64 to $15.19 after failing to reassure the Street about its earnings prospects. But really, how much lower can it go? I know: I shouldn't ask that question. Where's Superman when you need him?
Semi stocks shook after National Semi (NSM: Research, Estimates) warned that its sales weren't going to start growing after all -- National Semi fell 44 cents to $16.69. Morgan Stanley, which expected the semi industry to grow its revenue by 20 percent-to-25 percent in 2003, cut its estimate to 15 percent-to-20 percent growth. Don't you love hockey sticks?
Consider that overall chip sales are currently flat, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. Stanley Works (SWK: Research, Estimates), which saw its stock sink over 20 percent since the company began to talk publicly about moving to Bermuda, shed $1.21 to $34.51 after announcing that it would stay put. So much for patriotism.
Last but not least, UAL (UAL: Research, Estimates) fell $1.12 to $4.10 after the company confirmed that it hired bankruptcy lawyers after September 11. A BusinessWeek story points out that the company could face a crisis by this fall if it doesn't get the federal money it has requested. More work for Weil Gotshal.
THE LEGEND OF THE BOTTOM. Forgive the flight of fancy, but "the bottom" is beginning to remind me of the Loch Ness monster. Lots of people claim to have spotted it, but no one can prove that it exists. It's probably extremely ugly. And it's definitely publicity shy: The more people talk about it, the more determined it seems to be to stay out of sight. In other words, the constant cries of bottom-spotting aren't helping matters.
Merrill's Rich Bernstein, who has a 12-month target of 960 on the S&P 500, says that Wall Street strategists (who can't seem to stop saying the b-word) are"extraordinarily bullish" -- and historically, that's been a great contrarian indicator. Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research notes that "bear markets decline on a 'slope of hope.'" He adds that "over the past six to eight weeks there has been a mad rush on the part of Wall Street analysts and strategists and the financial media to call the final market bottom."
Bernie is particularly bothered by that Barron's headline: "Time to Stock Up: Forget the Gloom -- Equities Haven't Been this Attractive since the Mid-1990s." Do we have to stop believing in the bottom for it to materialize? Maybe that'll work for the Loch Ness monster, too.
SOME OF THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT LIKE THE OTHERS. Is cost-cutting better than earnings generation? And should executives share in the firm-wide misery? BMC Software (BMCC: Research, Estimates) is causing some controversy on both those subjects. A story by Dow Jones noted that BMC gave seven executives bonuses ranging from some $150,000 to $400,000 for successful snipping -- which included layoffs. In fact, some execs earned far more in this money-losing period than they did during the previous money-making ones.
This upsets at least one onlooker. Writes Patrick: "During a period while the company was generating losses, the board Compensation Committee saw fit to reward the top executives not for generating earnings but for cutting costs." Patrick says that in addition to cutting staff, the company also froze all merit increases for remaining employees and reduced their bonuses -- while the big boys got big paychecks.
What do you think? Is this a reward for a job well done, or should executives share the misery? Patrick is also curious about the $2.85 million in loans that the company has given to its SVP of operations, Jeffrey Hawn.
Loose change
We've all learned by listening to Merrill, Citi and JP Morgan testify about their dealings with Enron that words don't mean what you think they do. "Cash" might actually be a loan, "equity" might be debt and an "agreement" is never actually an agreement.
Here are more fresh definitions courtesy of my very handsome e-mail buddy. "P/E ratio": The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing. "Standard & Poor": Your life in a nutshell. "Yahoo": What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 a share. "Windows 2000": What you jump out of when you're the sucker that bought Yahoo for
$240 a share. And my personal favorite -- "Broker": Poorer than you were last year ... "Did you hear that people are calling their individual retirement accounts 201(k)?" Thanks, cookie monster!
Did you know that over the last five years you would have earned an almost 200 percent return in Sysco (SYY: Research, Estimates) (the food service company) and less than zero in Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates)? Isn't life weird?
Is GE's Power Systems business really immune from Calpine's problems?... Speaking of bottoms, Bear's Dana Telsey writes that "most the retailers we surveyed are placing their bets on bottoms this season." Aren't we all?
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