NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The cost to U.S. businesses from last year's terrorist attacks is incalculable, but clearly it's reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars, and some businesses could be hurt for years to come.

Still, a year later what's perhaps most surprising is that the costs weren't higher. Rather than the oil shock that many expected in the wake of the attacks, oil prices fell, muting the impact on some of the affected industries, such as airlines.

The lack of further attacks to date limited direct costs, and strong consumer spending helped some industries, such as autos, weather sales lost immediately after Sept. 11.

Still, there are many business casualties to last year's attack. The New York City Partnership estimates that direct economic impact from the attack on the city would be $83 billion. Even after insurance payments and promised federal relief, the partnership estimates there will be a $16 billion impact on the city, with an estimated 125,000 lost jobs by the end of last year. Even though the partnership predicts many of these jobs will eventually return, it estimates that 57,000 will still be missing from the city's economy at the end of 2003.

Insured losses from the attack will be $40.2 billion, according to Insurance Information Institute, a nonprofit group supported by the property and casualty insurance industry. That makes it by far the most expensive disaster in U.S. history, outdistancing 1992's Hurricane Andrew, which had held that distinction with insured losses of $15.5 billion.

P.J. Crowley, vice president of the Institute, said that because of changes in the way the insurance industry is assessing risks, the greater cost to U.S. business may come from increased insurance cost going forward, or from the inability of companies to get insurance that covers damage from terrorist attacks. He said premium increases could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars range on an annual basis as insurance companies try to figure out what is the proper assessment of risks and costs.

"Commercial rates are going up at about an average of 30 percent," Crowley said. "A fairly healthy percentage of businesses could be seeing increases in a range of 50 percent, and some are having trouble even getting coverage. In essence, the risk has been transferred from the insurance industry to the real estate industry, the banking industry, the transportation industry, the entertainment industry."

While the increase in insurance cost has been spread across all manners of U.S. business, no sector has seen more fallout from the attack than the travel industry.

Two small airlines -- Midway Airlines and Vanguard Airlines -- have halted operations since the attack, and one major carrier, US Airways Group Inc., has filed for bankruptcy court protection. The world's No. 2 air carrier, United Airlines, warns that it is flying in that direction. For the airline industry as a whole, 2001 was the worst year on record.

The drop in air travel also hit car rental companies. Budget Group and ANC Rental Corp., owner of National Car Rental, have filed for bankruptcy protection, and the entire sector appears to be ripe for consolidation. Hotel bookings and profits are also down sharply.

It wasn't only the U.S. traveler who pulled back in the wake of the attacks. Walt Disney Co. warned on this current quarter's results, saying that reduced bookings at its theme parks, particularly a 30 percent decline in bookings by international guests, would decrease earnings from year-earlier results.

Bad as they were, the losses that the travel business suffered could have been worse.

As airline officials appealed to Congress for a $5 billion bailout of the industry last fall, they predicted losses through June 30, 2002, of $18 billion as a result of the attacks. With an after-tax benefit of $4 billion in federal assistance, the industry was able to keep losses under $7.5 billion between October 2001 and June 2002, plus another $2.4 billion in losses in the third quarter of 2001, when most of the carriers were already heading for losses before the attack.

Much of the difference is due to a sharp drop in fuel costs, which according to the Air Transport Association saved the industry about $5 billion through June 30 compared with year-earlier costs.

"There's no question we never anticipated that kind of fuel reduction," said John Heimlich, director of economic and market research for ATA. "We thought fuel prices would be going up, and instead the second biggest part of our operating pie had a big reduction."

The fuel price decline was driven by a combination of the drop in demand and one of the warmest winters on record in the United States, said Fadel Gheit, oil analyst for Fahnestock & Co. The expectations that the attack would lead to disruption of Mideast oil supplies and higher prices never developed.

"The conventional wisdom was that we were going to see immediately after the terrorist attack a spike of oil prices," said Gheit. "But the drop in demand of 1 or 2 percent was sufficient to kill the price." He estimates that the oil industry lost about $7 billion in the six months following the attack due to the reduced price.

That price has worked its way back this summer amid speculation that the United States may invade Iraq as part of the nation's goal of fighting terrorism. That has pushed prices to an 18-month high near $30 a barrel, which Gheit estimates is costing the U.S. economy about $100 million a day.

Some of the nation's major manufacturers also saw significant losses due to the attacks. None was hit harder than Boeing Co., the world's largest aircraft maker. As airlines delayed or cancelled orders, its outlook for sales plunged. On June 30, 2001, the company had forecast between 510 and 520 commercial jet deliveries in 2002. Now it is looking at only 380 deliveries, and a further decline to 275-to-300 deliveries in 2003.

Overall consumer spending on durable goods held up relatively well following the attack, and the nation's manufacturing sector saw a recovery begin in February, according to the Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing, ending a streak of 18 months of declining activity. A weakening in the value of the dollar helped exports and raised the price of imports.

No sector of manufacturing outperformed expectations more than the auto industry. The public eagerly responded to zero-interest financing offers that automakers made in the wake of Sept. 11 to support sales demand. October 2001 ended up the best month ever for U.S. auto sales, with 1.7 million cars and light trucks sold, up 24 percent from October 2000 sales levels.

The zero-interest offer boosted sales, but also was a key factor in the loss Ford Motor Co. reported for the fourth quarter. The overall cost of the zero-interest was probably between $300 to $400 per vehicle sold in the fourth quarter, according to Paul Ballew, executive director for market and industry analysis at GM. That comes to about $520,000 million for GM and more than $1 billion for the industry overall. But not all of that is additional cost, since the industry would have had some kind of incentive program in place even without the attack, and the strong response to the program helped mute the costs.

While consumers snapped up cars, businesses, especially car rental companies, put the brakes on auto buying. Total fleet sales dropped more than 20 percent in the three quarters since the attack. But fleet sales, which generally account for a fifth of total industry sales, are done at lower prices and profit margins than retail sales to consumers, so the shift to more consumer purchases dampened the impact of the fleet sales decline.