NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The rap on the market after Labor Day is that, with all the smart people on Wall Street back from the Hamptons or the Poconos or wherever, the market will shake itself free of uncertainty.

Don't count on it. Despite their nice tans, the smart people are going to be as confused as the rest of us heading into the coming week. The economy continues to give off mixed signals, the possibility of war with Iraq looms, and with the Sept. 11 anniversary coming up, investors are bound to be skittish.

"We're going to continue to be fairly choppy," said Todd Clark, managing director of listed trading at Wells Fargo Securities. "Ultimately, that's decent action given the rally we've had."

Though it's a holiday-shortened week, investors shouldn't lack for news. Two major economic reports are slated to come out, the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index on Tuesday and the jobs report on Friday. (Click here to jump straight to a lineup of key events.)

After falling sharply in July, the August read on the Purchasing Managers' Index should show a rebound. The stronger the bounce, the more economists will suspect that the apparent drop-off in the economy in July was just a speed bump on the road to recovery.

There's reason to believe the report will be strong. The Chicago-area Purchasing Managers' Index, which often correlates well with the national report, showed unexpected strength when it was released on Friday.

"You definitely have to nudge up your expectations following the Chicago report," said Credit Suisse bond market strategist Mike Cloherty.

The jobs report, however, may not be such a happy occasion. Weekly jobless claims suggest the pace of layoffs picked up in August and, notes Northern Trust economist Paul Kasriel, the outright size of the labor force looks like it's due for a pop. These things could conspire to lift the unemployment rate above the current 5.9 percent and raise worries that consumer spending could slip.

Even though the week should give increased clarity on the economy, Cloherty thinks the reaction to the big reports could be muted.

"You still have all these distracting factors," he said. "You're going to have the Sept. 11 anniversary and we've had talk about Iraq pick up recently. Trading isn't going to return to normal until we get to the second half of September."

Chatter over where earnings are going should begin to pick up. At the latest sounding, analysts surveyed by First Call saw earnings growth at S&P 500 companies picking up by 11 percent in the third quarter compared with last year. But these numbers have been getting cut steadily, particularly in the technology arena.

"The forecasts look vulnerable," said Dresdner Kleinwort Benson global investment strategist James Montier. "That's what worries us most now." If the economy continues its slow apparent pace of recovery, he thinks, analyst estimates for the next several quarters are going to have to come down hard.

• The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index is the main event for Tuesday. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect it to pick up slightly, to 51, indicating slight growth in the manufacturing economy, but a strong reading on the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index suggests a higher number.
• Tuesday the carmakers report August sales. They should be slower than they were in July, but still strong on the back of generous incentive programs.
• Construction spending has been weak lately and the July read, due out Wednesday, should continue the trend. Even though the housing market has been booming, the commercial real estate market has been tepid, limiting activity. Economists forecast construction spending slipped by 0.5 percent.
• National Semiconductor reports its fiscal first-quarter results after the close on Wednesday. After a warning in early August, analysts surveyed by Multex expect it earned a penny a share. Because it reports into a dead spot in the earnings calendar, National Semi's results often have an outsized effect on technology stocks for such a second-tier player.
• Campbell Soup's stock has been a thin gruel lately. With its key North American soup business struggling (the division just lost its fourth head in five years), Campbell shares have fallen 21 percent. When it reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday morning, investors will want to know what it's going to do to turn things around. Analysts expect that it earned 14 cents a share.
• The market doesn't care that economists don't put much stock in the Institute for Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, due out Thursday. Even though it doesn't have much history to it and its construction isn't perfect, its peak in March 2000 and subsequent decline makes traders think it's worth watching.
• Given the surge in durable goods orders in July, July factory orders, due out Thursday, could also be strong.
• Thursday a slew of retailers will announce sales results for August. Weekly sales reports through the month were slow, so the chances are high that at least one of the retailers will guide lower.
• Friday brings the employment report. Economists think a meager 30,000 jobs got added in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 5.9 percent.