NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - With the third quarter nearing its end, it's time again for a sullen group of CEOs to heap ash on their heads and tell investors that their companies' results don't look like they're going to be up to snuff.

The confession period that comes during the last few weeks of the quarter is always somewhat trying for investors. Invariably some of the warnings are awful; even in good times they can cast a pall over the market. And these are not good times: The economy is not recovering as quickly as many companies and analysts seemed to think it would, leaving expectations too high. Brace yourselves.

Joe Cooper, a researcher at First Call, notes that so far this quarter the number of companies saying their results will fall short of expectations is more than double those saying results will exceed estimates. That's not a good sign -- at the comparable point in the second quarter negative and positive pre-announcements were running about even. When the warnings start picking up in the coming week, they'll likely be worse than usual.

"It looks like it could shape up to a bumpy ride," said Cooper. (Click here to jump straight to a lineup of the week's key events.)

Of course earnings disappointments aren't exactly a new phenomenon for the market to deal with -- results have been tepid to downright chilling for two years now. The problem is that companies, analysts and investors have had a tendency to assume that stellar growth is just around the corner. And every time it became clear the spurt wasn't imminent, they just pushed their expectation back a quarter or two. What they really need to do, said Merrill Lynch quantitative strategist Kari Bayer-Pinkernell, is rethink their earnings growth expectations altogether.

"Earnings are recovering," she said, "just not at the magnitude that a lot of people were expecting."

Investors will spend much of the week trying to get a better sense of how well President Bush's case to make a stand against Iraq is playing with the international community. But although nobody's sure exactly how it will come, or when, the market assumes that conflict will come.

While most Wall Streeters reckon it will all be over quickly once it starts (an opinion that may be challenged in the weeks to come), some fret about what kind of price tag the war will have.

"Where the cost was of the Gulf War was substantially carried by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the cost of this conflict is going to be entirely our own," said Stanley Nabi, managing director at Credit Suisse Asset Management. "My guess is that the first 90 days will cost $20 billion to $30 billion."

That would deepen the budget deficit in a way that didn't occur after the Gulf War, hindering economic growth.

The CEOs of a number of companies (mainly retailers), whose fiscal years start in February, must certify their financial results with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week. Most have already signed off, but a handful -- 38 at last count -- still haven't sent the paperwork in.

Aug. 14, the deadline for the bulk of the 947 companies required by the SEC to certify results, passed with little incident, so investors aren't so fretful about this next batch. Still, until the companies sign off, there'll be some nervousness.

• Monday the Department of Commerce releases July business inventory figures. Inventories have been running low, as companies, worried over the economy, have chosen not to keep much stock on hand. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect inventories rose by 0.2 percent in July.
• Monday is the deadline for Agilent (A: Research, Estimates), H&R Block (HRB: Research, Estimates) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates) to sign off on financial results with the SEC.
• On Tuesday the Fed releases figures on August capacity utilization and industrial production. Capacity utilization is expected to hold at 76.2 percent while the forecast for industrial production is a rise of 0.2 percent.
• Best Buy (BBY: Research, Estimates) reports results before the open Tuesday. Analysts polled by Multex expect it earned 18 cents a share in its latest quarter, 8 cents short of last year. Its stock fell sharply last month, when it warned that business was slow.
• Kroger (KR: Research, Estimates) reports Tuesday morning. Analysts forecast earnings of 32 cents a share.
• Tuesday's the SEC deadline for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF: Research, Estimates), American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS: Research, Estimates), Barnes & Noble (BKS: Research, Estimates), Federated Department Stores (FD: Research, Estimates), Target (TG: Research, Estimates) and Toys 'R' Us (TOY: Research, Estimates) to certify their results.
• Tuesday after the market close Oracle (ORCL: Research, Estimates) reports. Although down sharply from where it was at the start of the year, the database software king's stock has lately been coming back. Analysts expect it earned 7 cents a share in its latest quarter, down from 9 cents a year earlier.
• Wednesday the key read on inflation, the August Consumer Price Index, gets released. Economists expect it rose 0.2 percent.
• Wednesday the July trade balance comes out. Economists expect a trade deficit of $37 billion.
• Bear Stearns (BSC: Research, Estimates) reports Wednesday before the open. Less dependent on investment banking than its peers, the brokerage firm's stock has held up well. Analysts' estimates call for it to earn $1.21 a share.
• Circuit City (CC: Research, Estimates) reports Wednesday morning. Analysts expect it came up doughnuts -- zero cents a share.
• Wednesday Nike (NKE: Research, Estimates) reports, with analysts expecting the sporting goods maker earned 80 cents a share.
• Thursday housing starts and building permits get released. On the back of low mortgage rates, economists think housing activity perked up in August. The forecast is for starts to come in at an annual rate of 1.65 million and building permits to come in at an annual rate of 1.69 million.
• FedEx (FDX: Research, Estimates) reports Thursday morning, with analysts expecting it earned 49 cents a share.
• Friday the Philadelphia Fed releases its index on manufacturing in its region. Although the health of manufacturers in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware doesn't always reflect the health of manufacturers nationwide, the Philly Fed report will be one of the first reads on how the economy is doing this month. Economists expect the index will improve, rising to a positive 2.5 points after dropping to a negative 3.1 in August.
• Morgan Stanley's (MWD: Research, Estimates) results come out Friday. Analysts think it earned 67 cents a share.