NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - "Don't rule out a rate cut." That was my column yesterday before the Fed met. To be sure, a cut seemed a long shot, with almost no one on the Street calling for one.
But it turns out that it wasn't such a long shot after all. Two Fed officials voted AGAINST the decision to hold rates steady arguing for a rate cut NOW -- the first time two Fed officials have dissented on a vote since 1998.
After the Fed meeting, Former Fed governor Lyle Gramley appeared on CNNfn's "Money and Markets" and said that the dissent indicates the Fed is ready to cut rates if the economy continues to deteriorate (as Gramley fears it will).
"If this deterioration continues, I think the chances of another rate cut are going to increase significantly, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of an inter-meeting move," said Gramley. And in that case, Gramley sees the Fed acting aggressively, probably cutting by 50 basis points. "They're on top of the situation. They're not going to wait too long," he said.
Going against the family
The two dissenters are sending a very powerful signal. The last time a bank president dissented was in December 2001 when Tom Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, voted against the last of the Fed's string of 11 rate cuts. He is one of the presidents who has been consistently upbeat on the economy.
The struggling economy
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The last time a Fed governor dissented was back in 1995 when Larry Lindsey (now White House economic advisor) went against the majority view.
Bob McTeer, president of the Dallas Fed, was one of the two dissenters at Tuesday's meeting. Some economists are quick to dismiss McTeer's vote because he dissented twice back in 1999 against the Fed's rate hikes.
I had the opportunity to spend time with Bob a year and a half ago when I went down to Dallas to profile him and do a live interview. He's the son of gas station owner from a small town in rural Georgia, and a career Fed economist tapped to head the Dallas Fed back in 1991.
Besides being a great fan of the "Texas poet pickers," who write and sing many of the country songs that play on the Dallas Fed's phone system, he's a big believer in free enterprise and the power of individuals to make a difference. Maybe that's why he's willing to put his own neck on the line, because he believes strongly that the economy is in trouble. Dissenting is not something he would do lightly -- that's my impression.
Governor Ned Gramlich's dissent is more dramatic and puts a lot more weight behind McTeer's dissent. Gramlich is a former academic viewed on Wall Street as a middle of the road policymaker, not one to make waves. He has never dissented, so a vote against the majority has to come from an urgent sense that the Fed can't afford to "wait and see" if the economy is slowing or not -- it should be acting now.
Economists say this means the September employment report due out next week will be all the more important: a healthy one may push the forces of dissent back on the defensive, but a weak one could bring some more dissenters to their side.
Some say an inter-meeting rate cut would smell of "panic" by the Fed and they can't act now till the next meeting in early November. If that's true and the economy is weakening, then yesterday's majority decision could prove to be a costly mistake.
Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.
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