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Markets & Stocks
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Bulls run, but for how long?
Dow surges 4.8 % after blue chips improve profits. But Intel miss could stall rally tomorrow.
October 15, 2002: 7:03 PM EDT
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stocks rallied to a rare fourth straight winning session Tuesday, but weak results announced after the bell by Intel and top chip-equipment maker Novellus could stop the bull run in its tracks.

No. 1 chipmaker Intel posted a third-quarter profit, excluding charges, of 11 cents a share, missing Wall Street estimates by 2 cents. Intel shares dropped $1.33 to $15.19 in after-hours trading.

Novellus reported disappointing revenues citing "anemic demand" for the manufacturing technology that companies like Intel use. That news, combined with a disappointing fourth quarter forecast from Intel, casts fresh doubt about the prospects for any sort of near-term recovery in technology spending.

"Tomorrow we'll see how the market reacts to Intel's news," Ted Weisberg, a trader with Seaport Securities, told CNNfn's Street Sweep. "Remember, the market needs to look forward but earnings are trailing and not looking forward. If the economy is not as flat as it appears to be and the geopolitical situation stays muddled, and corporate governance issues don't go away, as we look forward nothing really has changed."

Ah, but that's tomorrow. Tuesday investors never looked back after better-than-expected profit reports from Citigroup, General Motors and Johnson & Johnson jumpstarted the session's rally off the opening bell.

The Dow Jones industrial average (up 378.28 to 8255.68, Charts) surged 4.8 percent to close above 8,000 for the first time since Sept. 18. Including Tuesday's 378-point advance, the blue-chip indicator has racked up nearly 1,000 points during the last six trading sessions. The Nasdaq composite (up 61.91 to 1282.44, Charts) rocketed 5 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index (up 39.83 to 881.27, Charts) advanced 4.7 percent.

The last time the Dow and the S&P logged four straight winning days was in early August, while the tech-laden Nasdaq hasn't logged four straight winning days since mid-August.

Including Tuesday's market action, the Dow has gained 13.3 percent, while the S&P is up 13.5 percent, over the last four days. The last time both indexes made such gains was during a four-day span ended July 29, with the Dow advancing 13.1 percent the S&P 12.7 percent.

Another indicator of investor euphoria was the decidedly positive market breadth on heavy volume. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers trounced decliners more than 3-to-1 as 1.8 billion shares traded. On the Nasdaq, winners also beat losers by more than 3-to-1 as 1.8 billion shares changed hands.

Stocks broke through a six-week losing trend last week, leading some analysts to suggest a possible floor under weakened markets, while others suggested investors consider the "bigger picture," including the existing fear factors of a weak economy and the threat of war with Iraq.

"This [was] a coil spring effect today. It's a rubber band stretch that could snap back," said Larry Wachtel, market analyst with Prudential Financial. "The market has been oversold for so long that of course we'll get an inordinate response to any good news. This is a process, a testing phase, and it doesn't mean we're on our way to a bubblemania again."

Third-quarter growth for corporate profits stands at 5.2 percent, up from 4.7 percent last week, after a surprisingly positive first batch of results from big-name companies following a broadly negative pre-announcement period. The actual growth still is down significantly from 16.6 percent forecast at the beginning of the quarter, according to earnings tracker First Call.

Financial issues and tech names also dominate the earnings docket Wednesday. Among the prominent companies reporting are J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch and IBM.

Financials fire up the Dow

Among the market movers were high-profile names in the financial, consumer products, auto and tech arena.

Kicking off a jam-packed reporting day -- with more than 100 companies on tap to post results -- was Citigroup (C: up $3.83 to $34.14, Research, Estimates)'s positive report card. The No. 1 financial services firm scraped past Wall Street's estimates by a penny, citing strength in its retail lending activities.

Citigroup shares suffered through recent bouts of bad news after the firm became the target of investigations alleging impropriety in IPO allocations to its executive clients and its involvement in Enron's demise.

Bank operator Bank of America (BAC: up $5.04 to $65.75, Research, Estimates) also gave support to the sector after reporting a third-quarter profit of $1.45 a share, 4 cents better than analysts' forecasts, and brokerage firm Charles Schwab (SCH: up $0.92 to $9.79, Research, Estimates) posted third-quarter results in line with estimates.

Fannie Mae (FNM: up $4.50 to $70.98, Research, Estimates), the nation's largest mortgage lender, added another bright spot. The company beat estimates for its third quarter as consumers capitalized on low interest rates and took out more mortgages.

Other Dow members tacking on a gain included U.S. automaker General Motors (GM: up $3.44 to $36.70, Research, Estimates), which posted third-quarter results that beat estimates and upped its guidance for the rest of 2002.

Health care products maker Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: up $1.73 to $59.56, Research, Estimates) also beat estimates by a penny on strong sales of its medical devices and prescription drugs.

Cigarette marketer Philip Morris (MO: up $1.73 to $40.02, Research, Estimates) benefited from a Goldman Sachs upgrade to "recommend" from "market outperform." The brokerage house said recent pullbacks in the stock price have created "compelling valuation" for the stock, and added that it sees concern about the depressed U.S. cigarette market abating over the next six to 12 months.

"Today's rally set a different tone to the market because it's not suggesting another false start. That's because there [was] an improvement in the quality of buying. Money is moving into stocks from bonds. This [was] not just short-term money entering the market but a longer-term commitment," said Peter Cardillo, director of research with Global Partners Securities.

Kind words for Microsoft

Shares of the No. 1 software maker gained after influential Goldman Sachs tech analyst Rich Sherlund said he expects Microsoft to meet or slightly exceed estimates for its fiscal first quarter, citing strength in the company's licensing activity in July. Microsoft (MSFT: up $3.00 to $52.29, Research, Estimates) is slated to report results Thursday.

Strength in techs spread to other blue-chip names, including IBM (IBM: up $5.06 to $68.48, Research, Estimates) and Dell Computer (DELL: up $0.89 to $27.54, Research, Estimates).

But the picture was somewhat foggy for the Internet and media company AOL Time Warner (AOL: up $0.81 to $12.13, Research, Estimates). The Financial Times reported that executives at the company's troubled Internet division, America Online, are expecting a further decline in revenue as a result of the advertising slump.

However, brokerage firm SoundView Technology upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "neutral," saying it believes the company will cut its marketing and network costs to the tune of about $600 million. AOL Time Warner is the parent company of CNN/Money.

European stocks logged big gains, while Asian-Pacific stocks finished higher Tuesday, with a 3.6 percent advance for Tokyo's Nikkei index.

A surge for stocks pummeled Treasury prices, sending the 10-year note yield up to 3.97 percent from 3.80 percent late Friday; there was no trading Monday for the Columbus Day holiday. The dollar gained against the yen and euro.

Light crude oil futures shed 21 cents to $29.76. Gold was slightly higher.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.