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Commentary > Street Life
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The bear is dead
Microsoft made the Street happy, and stocks ended up again -- but are the fundamentals improving?
October 18, 2002: 4:55 PM EDT
By Bethany McLean, FORTUNE

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Everyone is hoping that the rally has killed the beast. Another up week -- and another up day! That's despite mixed news on the corporate profits (see below) and economic fronts.

Inflation (or deflation -- pick your poison) looks to be under control, but a Commerce Department report showed that the U.S. trade deficit soared nearly 10 percent in August to a record $38.5 billion.

Yet the Dow closed up 47.36 at 8,322.40, while the Nasdaq added 15.57 to 1,287.86. Still, be careful out there. The economy is fragile at best, and few have seen signs of improving fundamentals, especially in technology. Long live the bear?

STOCK STUFF Master Microsoft shot up $2.38 to $53.15 after reporting what both Goldman and Merrill analysts called a "unique" quarter. Revenues were up 26 percent and well above estimates, as were earnings. (Yeah, I'd say that qualifies as unique.) Unfortunately, Microsoft's results don't necessarily bode good things for other software stocks, because the stellar gains at Mr. Softie are a result of long-term licensing deals.

Sun, on the other hand, continued to sink, reporting revenues that sagged 20 percent and saying that it would cut 4,000 jobs. Sun slid 25 cents to $2.74. Doesn't look like much of a Microsoft rival these days, does it?

Broadcom also reported results roughly in line with (low) expectations but warned about the future; Its stock fell $1.82 to $10.63. Goldman notes that Broadcom trades at a "historically low" 2.3 times sales. But do companies like Broadcom have enough "history" to matter? Well, at least Broadcom shed a wee bit less than Siebel, which dropped $1.10 to $6.20 after both missing AND warning.

Hershey added $1.77 to $63.87 after reporting earnings that beat expectations but revenues that did not. Avon also beat estimates, which marked its 11th quarter of meeting or beating estimates -- and perhaps more importantly, the company posted double-digit volume growth. The stock gained $3.52 to $49.71. Hey, I'm a customer!

WHAT ABOUT CONSUMER CREDIT? (AND GE) I don't think it means good things for Ford and GM. And it probably isn't good for any number of retailers. Check out Sears. Yesterday, Sears announced that it would miss expectations because it has to set aside more reserves for delinquent customers. Ahhhh, the softer side of Sears, indeed. Credit agencies say they may lower their ratings on Sears's debt.

What does this mean for GE, which handles credit cards for companies ranging from Wal-Mart to Gap? What does Boeing's news last week mean for GE's airplane leasing business? Probably nothing good -- but we'll never hear about it. "GE: "We bring good things to life." And we bury the bad ones. (GE slipped 29 cents to $26.60 today.)

Loose change

Shrunken stomachs -- is that what's happened to our IPO appetites? A few deals have gotten done, but both Plains Exploration, an oil driller, and USI Holdings, an insurance broker, had to postpone their offerings. Tomorrow, tomorrow. I love you, tomorrow -- well, maybe next week...

Best line of the day: "Investment banking is the best communist business. All the profits go to the workers, and none to the shareholders."...CNBC says that mutual funds are "getting more aggressive." Lovely. That must mean the rally is over...

"At this point, nobody should consider a Chapter 11 filing inevitable," says Glenn Tilton, the CEO of UAL, which posted a quarterly loss of $889 million, or $15.57 per share. Instead of a PE multiple, UAL has a LP multiple -- loss to price. $15.57 divided by $1.71 (UAL's closing price) equals about nine. Analysts say that the company is burning through some $7 million of cash a day. Do such statistics imply that there's a viable business here? Ummm...


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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.