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Markets & Stocks > Bonds & Rates
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Bonds edge higher; dollar off highs
Treasurys swing higher as equity markets running out of momentum; dollar takes a breather.
October 18, 2002: 4:23 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. Treasurys moved higher Friday, bringing to a halt a punishing week of losses, as massive bets on improving stocks slowed to a trickle and gave those still wary about the economy a chance to snap up bonds.

Around 4:00 p.m. ET, the two-year note rose 6/32 point to 99-21/32, yielding 2.06 percent. The five-year note gained 18/32 point to 100-21/32, with a yield of 3.10 percent.

The benchmark 10-year note rose 23/32 point to 102-3/32, pushing its yield to 4.11 percent, and the 30-year bond gained 22/32 to 104-17/32 with a yield of 5.07 percent. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

Shellshocked traders took some comfort in a record U.S. trade gap and subdued inflation, while seizing on wobbly stocks and cautious remarks from a Federal Reserve official about the economy as a buying opportunity for bonds.

The Dow Jones industrial average has rocketed nearly 1,000 points in a week, while at the same time yields on Treasury 10-year notes have leapt more than one-half percentage point from their lowest levels since the late 1950s.

Friday's bond gains were a welcome relief, therefore, but could only nibble into losses that made it the worst week for bonds in almost a year.

"I think this has to be put into perspective. We had a huge, huge rally for a long time in the bond market. We are talking about how 10-year yields have fallen from 5.4 percent in March to oh-my-goodness-I-can't-believe-this 3.6 percent," said Michael Cheah, a portfolio manager at Sun America Asset Management.

"For us to give up some of the gain for consolidation, for correction, is very, very healthy," Cheah said.

In remarkably candid remarks, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Cathy Minehan said the U.S. economy remains fragile even without new blows. Minehan, who is not a voting member of the Fed's policy making committee this year, also said the consumer may be starting to "wobble," comments that were supportive of the bond market.

Many analysts would agree.

"Improvement in the macro fundamentals has clearly been marginal at best and the Fed's bias-to-ease ain't going away anytime soon," said Peter McTeague, Treasury strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets. "I actually think reasons for easing are growing."

While Minehan's remarks were supportive of Treasurys, analysts said much of Friday's trading activity was related to technical factors.

"The volatility that we're seeing is ... (because) greater than 50 percent of the activity is program trading," said John Spinello, Treasury strategist at Merrill Lynch Government Securities. "The swings are really violent."

Bond market psychology has begun to shift toward investors believing prices have set a peak that may hold for months. In the meantime, equities and bonds must work off excesses caused by the abrupt moves, analysts said.

Dollar takes a breather

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar retreated from a fresh four-month high against the yen at 125.56 yen and a recent one-month peak versus the euro as cautious investors watched Wall Street stocks open weaker on Friday after a heady rally.

The euro ticked up to a new session high at 97.42 cents after the U.S. trade data were released, but fell back to 97.18 cents, up from its close at 97.04 cents in New York Thursday. Earlier on Thursday, the euro hit a one-month low at 96.97 cents.

Against the yen, the dollar was at 125.46 yen Friday afternoon, up from its U.S. close at 125.05 yen on Thursday.  Top of page


-- from staff and wire reports




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Market indexes are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer LIBOR Warning: Neither BBA Enterprises Limited, nor the BBA LIBOR Contributor Banks, nor Reuters, can be held liable for any irregularity or inaccuracy of BBA LIBOR. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2012 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer The Dow Jones IndexesSM are proprietary to and distributed by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and have been licensed for use. All content of the Dow Jones IndexesSM © 2012 is proprietary to Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Chicago Mercantile Association. The market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2012. All rights reserved. Most stock quote data provided by BATS.