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3Q economic growth stronger
GDP, broadest gauge of U.S. economic vigor, grew 3.1% in third quarter but was less than expected.
October 31, 2002: 12:00 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Resilient consumer spending helped produce stronger U.S. economic growth in the third quarter, a government report indicated Thursday.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic strength, grew at an annualized pace of 3.1 percent, compared with just 1.3 percent in the second quarter. Economists, on average, expected a growth rate of 3.6 percent, according to Briefing.com.

Driving the gain in GDP was a 4.2 percent growth rate in consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the total economy. Consumer spending grew at just a 1.8 percent pace in the second quarter.

"For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace," said Brown Brothers Harriman economist Lara Rhame.

Still, a lot of the spending growth in the third quarter was due to strong auto sales, which were fueled by aggressive automaker incentives such as zero-percent financing.

Many economists doubt such a robust pace will be repeated in the fourth quarter, as fears about war in Iraq, the fading charm of zero-percent financing, and a dismal late-summer performance in stocks have weighed on consumer confidence -- which by one measure has plunged to its lowest level since 1993.

"I still don't expect a double dip [into recession], and I don't think the consumer will turn around [and stop spending], but I do take that confidence number very seriously," Rhame said.

Thursday's GDP report had little impact on U.S. stock prices, which rose in early trading. Treasury bond prices fell.

The report is also likely to have little bearing on the decision of Federal Reserve policy makers next Wednesday about whether or not to cut their target for short-term interest rates.

The key Fed interest rate is at a 40-year low after 11 rate cuts last year, meant to lower the cost of borrowing, spur consumer spending, and help the economy recover from a recession that began in March 2001.

The report could help President Bush and his fellow Republicans somewhat in next Tuesday's U.S. election, since Bush could possibly point to continuing GDP growth to counter Democrats' claims that he has fumbled badly in his handling of the economy.

Of course, Friday's report from the Labor Department on October unemployment could work against Bush. Economists, on average, expect unemployment to rise to 5.8 percent in October from 5.6 percent in September, according to Briefing.com. Continuing weakness in the labor market has also helped weigh on consumer confidence, and businesses still seem reluctant to hire workers.

On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that new claims for unemployment benefits climbed to 410,000 last week from a revised 394,000 the prior week. A level of 400,000 is the benchmark measure for jobless claims indicating weakness in the labor market.

In a hopeful sign for the economy, however, non-residential fixed investment, a key measure of business spending, grew for the first time since the third quarter of 2000, at a pace of 0.6 percent, after shrinking at a 2.4 percent rate in the second quarter.

And business spending on equipment and software rose at a 6.5 percent rate, the strongest pace since the second quarter of 2000, compared with a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter.

If businesses are willing to spend again, they might soon be willing to hire new workers.

Consumer spending on durable goods, items such as cars and computers meant to last three years or more, rose at a whopping 22.7 percent rate in the quarter, reflecting strong demand for autos.

Government spending, which has helped prop up the economy in recent quarters, grew at a 1.8 percent pace, following 1.4 percent growth in the second quarter.

The GDP's consumer price index, a closely watched measure of consumer inflation, rose 1.4 percent in the quarter, compared with 2.3 percent in the second quarter, as inflation continued to be a distant threat in a weak economy.  Top of page




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