NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - What will the Fed do today? Conversations with two smart economists leave me thinking that just about anything may be possible.

Let me share with you first comments I received this morning from Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (a small-business organization), professor of economics at Temple University's B-school in Philadelphia, a guy who is well-known and respected in monetary policy circles.

"Let's see, the market is up over 1,000 in the past few weeks and seems to be gaining steadily, consumer sentiment is nowhere near recession lows, the federal funds rate was over 3 percent before Sept. 11 and we've absorbed that one, capital spending has actually gone positive, the growth in the economy in the third quarter was far better than the second, interest rates are at 40-year lows now, etc. etc.," he writes, "And people expect a rate cut????????? please!!!"

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He says another Fed rate cut is only justified if the Fed sees another serious recession ahead, which Bill obviously does not. And if the Fed does cut, he says, they're just giving in to stock market calls for super low, Japanese-style interest rates.

Why is "no cut" so unlikely? The media. A barrage of coverage suggesting the Fed is gearing up for rate cuts now have Wall Street geared up for rate cuts, too.

The most interesting monkey-wrench in the works today is the Republican electoral victory. Stocks may like the potential for more tax cuts and some investor-friendly moves like eliminating the double-taxation of dividends.

But bond market vigilantes worry about more tax cuts leading to bigger government deficits, and ultimately an overheated economy. Treasurys have not reacted so well to the election news.

On the other hand, I also spoke this morning to Dana Johnson. He runs the research group at the Banc One Capital Markets operation in Chicago and was a staff economist for the Fed's Board of Governors in Washington.

Dana thinks the Fed should, and may, cut the fed funds rate by a half-percentage point to 1.25 percent today. "The economy is not cascading lower, but it's dead in the water," he said, adding that there's no income growth, no production growth, and sales seem to be stalling as well.

"Monetary policy is all about balancing risks, and the risks don't look balanced at all right now," he added. In fact, he thinks if the Fed does cut by 50 basis points today there may still be room for another cut of 25 basis points in December.

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What could hold the Fed back? In September, there were two dissenters at the Fed meeting who voted for immediate rate cuts, against the majority decision to hold policy steady.

Dana said today, the Fed folk who voted against rate cuts last time may agree to cut rates by a quarter point today, but might balk at voting for the bigger rate cut. And rather than ending up with dissents at this meeting, which would send a mixed message, he said the consensus decision may be for everyone to agree on the smaller cut now, with the idea of doing another one next month.

Two smart, knowledgeable, honest guys with two very different views. Ah well, the confusion will last only until 2:15 p.m. ET.

Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.