SAN FRANCISCO (CNN/Money) -
A choppy market makes room for lots of opinions. Bulls look good one day, bears the next. Today, it's time to hear from you, the readers, who always have plenty to say.
THE FED Everyone loves to talk about the Fed. What a great country! We actually care about our central bank. But we don't always like it.
One reader who's had it with the Fed is Nick, who writes, "I am not sure if the Fed has been burying its head in the sand or if they just have a longstanding case of wishful thinking, but this must be the longest "soft spot" that I have ever seen or heard of. I collect for a bank. I have been seeing serious problems from the people being laid off to the top dogs losing their cushy jobs. Small businesses aren't getting their receivables and the only people I see doing well are the bankruptcy attorneys and anyone who can cash in on the mortgage refi business...If this is a "soft spot," I would hate to see what they would call a full-blown recession!"
Nick, I totally agree. The expression "soft spot" was an odd choice in the Fed's statement the other day. An even odder locution was this one from the Fed: "Inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained." The country is dangerously close to widespread deflation, and the Fed is still worried about inflation being contained? I don't get it.
THE MARKET The bigger topic, of course, is trying to figure out the overall direction of the market. Enter Luis, who writes, "a few articles ago you said the bear market is still here and that this market will pull back again and go lower than last time. I totally agreed with your thoughts but in light of this recent technical rally that does not seem to want to go away, do you see this market rally being sustained at least through the end of this year or mid-December of this year?"
Luis, I'd be kidding you and myself if I pretended to have any sense of timing. You raise a good point, however, in pointing out that the market has been resilient. Take, for instance, the shares of Cisco Systems. Despite its dour outlook and the havoc it wreaked on the rest of the market Thursday, the stock is up 55 percent since its recent low on Oct. 8.
What's more, it's down only 7 percent from the intra-day high it hit Wednesday, before issuing its disappointing forecast. The fact remains that the news generally has been bad and that for now we're still in a bear market. Yes, investors are resilient. No, it isn't smooth sailing from here on out. (See "Cisco's reality check".)
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Finally, for the big, big picture, I turn to Mike, who has this to say: "I read your column regularly and enjoy your insights and no-nonsense style. But sometimes I wonder if maybe you are being a bit too much of a pessimist these days. Take a long walk in the park and enjoy the fresh air. There's a lot of things to be optimistic about, if you just look for it."
Mike, those are words to live by! For what it's worth, I'm a huge optimist. Really, I'm a cup-half-full kind of guy, in general. As a journalist, however, I try to be skeptical, which I define as looking for the holes in whatever argument I'm in. If I always assumed the best, why, I'd be...an equity analyst. Yeah, that's the ticket!
Have a great weekend!
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.
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