NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Even baby bulls need time for reflection, of course, so even Wall Street's optimists weren't surprised by the market's recent pause. But now it's time for it to stop ruminating and get back to running.

Although stocks nudged higher in the week that just finished, none of the indexes were able to breach their highs of the month, something to watch for in the week ahead. It is the Nasdaq, in particular, that traders are keying off.

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The tech-swollen index is within spitting distance not only of its best levels so far this rally, but of the high it reached in this summer's rally. At 1,411, the Nasdaq has traveled 26 percent from the low it hit in October and is just 11 points away from the August high of 1,422.

See the Nasdaq poke above that, and there will be cheers on Wall Street.

"If that's taken out you're going to have a lot of people claim that we have bottomed," said Todd Clark, managing director of listed trading at Wells Fargo Securities. "That's the key." (And for key events in the week ahead, click here.)

So what's the big deal about getting past the summer highs in the Nasdaq? For one thing, if you look a chart of the index since it turned tail in 2000, you'll see that each recovery has never reached the high of the previous recovery. It's just a great, big pattern of lower highs followed by lower lows -- a bear market, in other words.

For the technical analysts who spend their time looking at the steaming entrails of the market, that August high on the Nasdaq is what's called "resistance" -- the level where traders decided last time (correctly) that it was a good time to sell. Breaking above that level would suggest that something about the market had changed for better.

The other reason that August high on the Nasdaq is important is that, well, everybody is looking at it.

"Technical analysis works precisely because people look at it," said Bollinger Capital Management head John Bollinger. "And if people care, I care."

Bollinger thinks the Nasdaq will punch through that August high: With all the focus, and with so many institutions very much wanting to see the rally continue, it seems like a done deal.

• Toy's "R" Us, which reports Monday, will tell you that it's in transition, having pushed through a big remodeling program this past year to draw customers back to its stores. But critics say that no matter how much it remodels its stores, the big toy retailer's business model just doesn't work. It only makes money in the fourth (holiday) quarter, and loses money the rest of the year. Wal-Mart, on the other hand, which is taking more and more of the toy business, makes money all year long. How can Toys "R" Us compete? Analysts polled by Multex think it lost 14 cents per share in its latest quarter against last year's 22 cent loss.
• Lowe's keeps picking up steam. The do-it-yourself outfit has simultaneously benefited from the surge in mortgage refinancing this past year (homeowners often spend the cash raised in a refinancing on house improvements) and disarray at competitor Home Depot. But investors keep on wondering how much longer the fun in housing can last, and so Lowe's trades below the highs it reached this summer, despite continuing to grow quickly. Analysts think it earned 40 cents a share against last year's 32 cents.
• Home Depot, that other do-it-yourselfer, reports on Tuesday. Investors continue to worry about Lowe's encroachment into major metropolitan markets as well as some of the promotionalism that Home Depot has engaged in to hit sales targets. Analysts expect it earned 40 cents a share versus last year's 33 cents.
• Back in the old days traders would worry the monthly Consumer Price Index would show that inflation was on the rise. These days a little more inflation would be nice -- it would mean companies were getting more pricing power and suggest the economy is pulling itself out of the mud. After Friday's unexpected jump in the Producer Price Index, the October CPI, due out Tuesday morning, could hop higher, too. Not a bad thing. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect the CPI gained 0.3 percent.
• The September trade balance, out Tuesday morning, will show a big trade deficit. It's something that we've lived with for a while, of course, but with the economy's continued weakness don't be surprised if you start hearing more griping about it. U.S.-based manufacturers in particular have something to complain about. Economists expect a trade deficit of $37 billion, against August's $38.5 billion.
• October housing starts and building permits are out Wednesday morning. After a big bounce in September, their pace probably moderated a bit -- economists expect starts at 1.72 million versus September's 1.84 million and permits at 1.69 million versus September's 1.73. The crack in the housing market that so many people worry about clearly hasn't come yet.
• Hewlett the dogs out? Hewlett Dell continue to grab market share? Hewlett Michael Capellas step down as president? When Hewlett-Packard reports its numbers on Wednesday, investors will have lots of questions for CEO Carly Fiorina. She'll have her work cut out for her. Analysts expect the company made 22 cents a share, versus last year's 19 cents.
• The index of Leading Economic Indicators for October comes out Thursday morning. Economists don't pay much heed to this one -- it's made up of a bunch of numbers that have already been released -- but nonetheless it gives a nice read on where we stand. Where we stood in October, economists think, is roughly where we stood in September. The Leading Indicators are expected to come in flat.
• Investors will get their first good peek at how manufacturing is doing in November when the Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity comes out at noon, Eastern time, on Thursday. Economists reckon it will be bad, dropping 5 points, but not as bad as last month when it dropped 13.1.