NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Those virtual worlds you like to explore are about to get a lot more realistic.
Developers have been itching to create graphics that are more true to life for years now, but graphics cards in desktop PCs simply couldn't handle them. Smooth lines, real-time shadows and accurate skin tones look great, but achieving those effects gobbles up an astonishing amount of processing power.
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The GeForce FX shows what it can do with a tech demo. |
These days we're standing on the precipice of a breakthrough. ATI's Radeon 9700 and nVidia's just-announced GeForce FX could let developers take another step towards creating characters that don't look like a collection of closely-group triangles. The result could be a resurgence in PC gaming software sales – and maybe even a healthy boost to the stock price of those two chipmakers.
Perhaps you've seen what John Carmack and the team at id Software are doing with "Doom III". The game's space-station setting and shuffling zombies look like something off a Hollywood set. (Granted, a "B" movie, but that's still eons beyond even the most detailed creatures from id's last release: "Quake III".)
"Doom" is a hardcore game, though. It will boast strong sales, but it won't appeal to the mainstream audience. But with these recent advances in hardware, casual gamers won't be left out.
Take the next installment of "The Sims," for example. Electronic Arts (ERTS: Research, Estimates) is quietly working on the game's stand-alone sequel. Late last week, nVidia hinted that EA is embracing the GeForce FX technology for "The Sims 2". And in March "Sims" creator Will Wright told me he was interested in taking the game to new levels.
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Doom III's zombies look chillingly real. |
"They'll be more expressive, more interesting and more lifelike," he said. Also on the drawing board at the time were movie story-telling techniques, such as cuts, scenes and fades.
In the last two-and-a-half years, more than 18 million copies of "The Sims" and its add-ons have been sold, bringing in roughly $700 million for EA. While it's the gameplay that has been responsible for that, imagine the numbers if that gameplay came packaged with eye-popping graphics.
Similarly, the next installment in Sony's popular online role-playing game "EverQuest" is also shooting for enhanced realism. Right now, more than 430,000 people pay $12.95 per month to wander the world of Norrath. In late 2003, Sony (SNE: Research, Estimates) will open the gates to a revitalized Norrath and expects a surge of interest from both current and new players.
It's not just the 'fun' side of the industry where this gets interesting either. For the first time in three years, we've got a legitimate fight on our hands in the graphics world.
nVidia (NVDA: Research, Estimates) has been king of the graphics hill since it introduced its GeForce chips in 1999. ATI (ATYT: Research, Estimates) turned gamer heads in July with the Radeon 9700, though - especially when word came out that id had used the Radeon 9700 to power "Doom III" at its first public showing in May.
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One of EverQuest II's mummies. |
Wall Street's not paying a lot of attention right now. nVidia shares, beaten down from their 52-week high of $72.66 by the weak tech sector, have rebounded from their lows, but are still struggling. ATI shares haven't been above $15.65 for a year, primarily since the company hasn't been a real threat to nVidia.
Things are different now. The Radeon 9700 is readily available, while the GeForce FX won't be on store shelves until sometime in February, typically a weak time of the year for PC sales. Will that be enough to turn the tide? Who knows, but it should be an interesting fight to watch.
There is one thing to keep in mind about these graphical advances. In most cases, it's going to be a few years before you see them on store shelves. While the developers of "Doom III" and "EverQuest II" have been building their games with this level of realism in mind, not many other developers have been. And the $400-$500 price tag of these graphics cards will scare off all but the most avid gaming enthusiasts.
Less expensive, less powerful offshoots of the cards will hit the mass market before long, though. (In fact, one's already out for ATI's card.) And the chips will ultimately find their way into new computers from all the major manufacturers.
GAME (NOT) OVER
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A lot of writers try to compare graphical leaps in the PC gaming industry with the "Toy Story" movies, or occasionally "Shrek". The secret truth is that truly talented developers are aiming for something closer to "Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within". (The film itself was awful, but the computer-generated characters were the closest to lifelike anyone has achieved.)
We're still a couple of generations away from seeing quality like that in real time, but it's within sight now. And a lot of people who dismiss today's games as mere child's play are going to be rethinking their positions.
Morris is Director of Content Development for CNN/Money. Click here to send him an email.
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