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News > Technology
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Little to cheer at Comdex
The tech industry's biggest trade show ended not with a bang, but with a whimper.
November 21, 2002: 7:01 PM EST
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money Staff Writer

LAS VEGAS (CNN/Money) - "You should have seen this place two years ago."

That was what most people said when trying to compare this year's Comdex to prior ones. Attendees had fond memories of 2000. But this year, there was little in the way of genuine excitement about new products or the industry in general.

It seemed like people were going through the motions and doing their best to forget how tough the environment for technology companies is right now. Attendees seemed confident that the economy should get better next year. But there was still that sense that things will never be the same as they once were.

To be sure, there were some fleeting instances that hinted at what the glory days of Comdex were like. On Monday and Tuesday morning, the Comdex speeches and presentations on the show floor seemed like one big pep rally. But the crowds were noticeably smaller with each passing day. By Thursday, the show was almost funereally quiet.

And with the events organizer, Key3Media, considering a bankruptcy filing, many questioned whether or not this would be the last Comdex. A spokesman for Key3Media did not return a call seeking comment. But even if Comdex survives, there were some who thought that coming back is not worth it anymore, especially since the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is held in Las Vegas in January.

 
Comdex, the tech industry’s biggest trade show, ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. (Photo: CNN/Money)

Christopher Sluka, public relations manager for Olympus America, said that Olympus would not be coming back to Comdex next year. "It was once the premier show but not anymore," he said. Olympus is no slouch either, trailing only Sony (SNE: Research, Estimates) in worldwide sales of digital cameras.

Others said that Comdex is no longer as relevant because the organizers have opened up the event to more consumers. "Comdex is only useful as a business-to-business show. If you're not getting deals, it's not viable," said Chris Hook, a public relations manager for ATI Technologies, a graphics chip manufacturer.

Have to admit it's getting better

Still, senior executives of major technology companies that came to Comdex were hopeful that next year would not be as bleak as this one. But few are willing to guarantee a recovery. The cockiness associated with the tech industry during the bubble years is gone.

"We'll see some waves of improvement in 2003, but I'm not holding out hope for a huge rise," said Simon Phipps, chief technology evangelist for Sun Microsystems (SUNW: Research, Estimates).

Other executives said they thought that things were stabilizing, which is a good sign. Joe Marengi, senior vice president and general manager of Dell Computer's North American operations, says that current estimates for a 3 percent to 5 percent increase in overall hardware units shipped next year is probably accurate.

That's certainly an improvement over this year, when PC sales are expected to dip slightly. But it's nothing to get overly excited about, especially if you're investing in technology hardware companies.

Big businesses simply aren't willing to substantially increase their information technology budgets just yet. Yuji Ichimura, general manager of corporate planning and business strategy for NEC Solutions America, a subsidiary of Japanese electronics titan NEC (NIPNY: Research, Estimates), says corporate customer spending has been "stagnant" and that contract sizes are getting smaller.

Will cool new gadgets be big hits?

Several new mobile devices were among the most prominently hyped at the show. But there was some skepticism about whether or not Tablet PCs, notebook computers that you can write on, and Smart Displays, detachable monitors that have a wireless connection to a PC, will catch on with consumers.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates), NEC and Toshiba were among the hardware manufacturers that showed off their Tablet PCs at Comdex. But Dell's Marengi says that Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) has no problem waiting and seeing if there is a legitimate market for Tablet PCs before beginning to produce its own version.

That's the strategy Dell took regarding personal digital assistants as well. It finally debuted a PDA at this year's Comdex. "Part of our flier is to not make bets on markets that may or may not happen," Marengi says. "We don't just put out a device because there is a device."

Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates) Chairman Bill Gates featured a Smart Display monitor by ViewSonic prominently during his keynote speech on Sunday night. European consumer electronics company Philips (PHG: Research, Estimates) is set to ship Smart Displays during the first quarter of next year as well. But Ian Miller, director of display technology for Samsung Electronics America, says the company is not rushing to get a Smart Display on the market.

"We have some in the lab, but we have questions about whether people will use it," says Miller, noting that many people already have wireless connections in their home and can just bring their laptops to different locations.

Still, even though there wasn't much of a celebratory atmosphere at Comdex this year, most people were optimistic that a bottom has either been reached or is near. That was not the case last year. Plus, the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks were still fresh on everyone's mind during Comdex 2001.

"Last year at this time people were clinically depressed," says David Nagel, CEO of PalmSource, the operating system subsidiary of Palm (PALM: Research, Estimates). "This year, people generally seem to be planning for the future."  Top of page




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