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Commentary > The Hays Files
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3BR, 2BA, Won't Last!
Sooner or later the housing market will land, but it looks like later.
December 2, 2002: 1:42 PM EST
By Kathleen Hays, CNN/Money Contributing Columnist

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Sooner or later the incredibly buoyant housing market will come down to earth. For now let's check the box that says "later" because once again the numbers show home sales are soaring.

October home sales surged more than six percent to 5.77 million units at an annual rate -- highest level since April of this year. That October level is also up sharply from 5.44 million in September and from 5.27 million in October 2001.

What's especially interesting, says economist Ed McKelvey at Goldman Sachs, is that these numbers reflect home purchases that went to contract in August. Mortgage rates have fallen since then, so we could see very healthy November and December numbers, too.

But just how healthy is healthy?

One of the biggest threats to mortgage rates remaining so very low and attractive is the rebound in the stock market. U.S. government bond yields are well above their recent lows and if they continue to rise, mortgage rates will follow.

In fact the weekly mortgage purchase index compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association appears to be in a mild downtrend since mid-summer. True, from some record levels, but a slight pulling back nevertheless.

Low mortgage rates are crucial to keeping homes affordable as prices rise -- the lower rate cuts down the monthly mortgage payment. In the October report, the median U.S. home price comes in at $159,600, that's higher than September's 157,900 and up 9.8 percent from October 2001.

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Now, if mortgage rates keep rising and demand cools off a bit, then maybe prices will stop rising so much and potential buyers, especially first-timers who don't have equity in another home, won't be squeezed out of the market. From a consumer standpoint, this could be a plus.

This week on CNNfn our special series, "Your Money, Your Home" will look at markets around the country. We'll look for signs of strain in hot markets, examine what immigration has done to home prices, and take a look at the plight of that first-time buyer. Tune in to Money & Markets today at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.  Top of page




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