NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Sure, everyone's worried about money, the economy and Saddam Hussein. But has all that really affected our holiday shopping plans?

Definitely, analysts and industry watchers say. But just how much depends on whom you ask.

A bevy of surveys predicting consumers' holiday shopping plans have hit Wall Street in recent weeks, all with slightly different forecasts. Yet most seem to draw the same conclusion: People will spend the same or slightly more than they did a year ago. They just won't break the bank.

The latest survey, released Monday by the Conference Board, a private New York-based business research group, shows Americans on average will spend 5 percent more on gifts this year than last year.

New Englanders will be the most generous, with each person spending an average of $552. Southerners are likely to be the thriftiest, spending an average of $393.

The results indicate consumers are in relatively good shape financially, giving retailers hope that the sluggish economy, Middle East woes and a shorter holiday shopping season won't create the disastrous holiday season many industry analysts initially predicted.

"They're pretty optimistic numbers," said Delos Smith, economist for the Conference Board, a private business research group that tracks consumer behavior and confidence in the economy.

Smith said Americans' personal incomes are 3.9 percent higher than a year ago, and retailers have kept a tight rein on inventories all year in anticipation of a spending slowdown, meaning both consumers and retailers enter the critical shopping season in about as good shape as they'll get, he said.

Still, Smith acknowledged that any number of factors from a war with Iraq to rising unemployment, could derail those predictions.

"In a sense, people have money. But again, you have to think and consider the nervousness if there's another terrorist attack, or if there's mobilization (in Iraq), or you have another sniper attack," Smith said. "We're vulnerable."

Meanwhile, the Index of Investor Optimism survey released by UBS Warburg and the Gallup Poll of Investor Attitudes shows a 12 point rise in optimism over the U.S. economy since October, and that investors plan to spend an average of $1,100 on holiday gifts. Nearly two-thirds, or 63 percent, said they would spend about the same on gifts as they did last year. A quarter of those surveyed said they would spend less. Just 10 percent said they planned to spend more.

Separately, a survey last week by the International Council of Shopping Centers said consumers plan to spend an average of $817 on holiday purchases this year, about the same as last year. The survey showed that the holiday season is likely to be "short, intense and highly promotional," even though consumers still have money to spend.

Consumers are worried about the condition of the economy, war and unemployment, said Malachy Kavanagh, ICSC spokesman.

Additionally, the survey found the majority of people planned to do most of their holiday shopping at discount chains and department stores, and at mall specialty stores. Discount chains have been steadily grabbing market share from other types of merchants because of their lower prices.

Still, Kavanagh points out that surveys on consumer intentions can be tricky things.

"You can have all the intentions in the world, but do you actually follow through?" Kavanagh said.