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Commentary > The Hays Files
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Data fit for a feast!
Stop worrying about deflation and enjoy the leftover turkey.
December 2, 2002: 1:42 PM EST
By Kathleen Hays, CNN/Money Contributing Columnist

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - As we sat down Thursday to eat, drink, and, above all, give thanks for our personal and national blessings, some of us added one more item to the list: The latest numbers show the economy ain't no turkey.

From falling jobless claims to a super-strong reading on business activity from the Chicago Purchasing managers, it looks like we no longer have to worry about the economy falling as flat as the left-over whipping cream on top of the pumpkin pie.

Not only was the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index reading of 54.1 stronger than expected (and well above 50, the level which separates growth and contraction), it was driven by a big jump in the production index and in new orders.

And remember, just a few days ago we saw a much better-than-expected reading on mid-Atlantic manufacturing from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, aka, the Philly Fed survey. Now economists say this probably means the national manufacturing numbers from the Institute of Supply Management should show strength as well.

A big worry in the past few months has been declining industrial production. It's just hard to believe in a healthy economy and solid recovery while that's happening. But maybe the rebound in durable goods orders in October and these latest manufacturing numbers are signaling a reversal in that ominous trend.

The employment outlook in manufacturing is still pretty weak, but less so in the overall economy, at least when you look at the numbers on new claims for unemployment benefits. They fell to 364,000 last week, their lowest level since February 2001 -- one month before the recession began! Wow!

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But that is still a pretty hefty number of new weekly claimants, and probably helps explain why people still don't feel all that great about the economy. The rebounds in November Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment were not resounding, and were based more on hopes for the future improving than a sense that conditions are getting better right now. And the ABC/Money Magazine weekly poll of Consumer Comfort weakened last week with people's view of the economy hitting a new cycle low. Again, people not feeling so great, not yet.

For a lot of workers and the companies that employ them there isn't much gravy out there in the economy right now. But at least the slippery downward spiral of deflation that haunts financial markets is starting to look like a threat as distant as the Federal Reserve portrays it. That's a big blessing.


Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.