NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - President Bush makes no secret of his wish to push sweeping economic and tax reforms through Congress. With the resignations last Friday of Paul O'Neill, former Treasury secretary, and former chief economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey -- both requested by the White House -- the movement for change has gathered even more momentum.
But what exactly does the White House plan to do? Bush will likely iron out the details in the weeks leading up to the State of the Union address in January. Some changes, however, seem like sure bets: Further reduction of income tax rates, eliminating taxes on dividends and increasing contributions to tax-advantaged retirement accounts.
Whether they'll lift the economy from its fog remains to be seen, but there's no doubt they'll have an impact on your pocketbook. Here's a list of the changes you probably can bank on seeing in 2003.
Accelerating income tax rate cuts
The Tax Relief Act of 2001 set a schedule to reduce income tax rates over the next 10 years. But Bush might propose to pick up the pace on those cuts, said Lawrence Whitman, director of the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation.
"Cuts might be accelerated, so that deep cuts are in effect right away," Whitman said. "That's not a question of getting a $300 check -- people would keep even more come tax time."
Income tax rates are scheduled to come down a percentage point in 2004 and another point in 2006, Whitman said. But instead of waiting those extra years, both of those cuts could be made effective for 2003. The estate tax exemption, scheduled for repeal in 2010, might be repealed immediately as well, Whitman said.
Eliminating taxes on dividend income
One leading contender for reform is dividend tax cuts for individuals, said Chris Edwards, fiscal policy director for the Cato Institute. Currently, dividends are taxed twice: companies pay dividends out of earnings that have already been taxed, then shareholders pay tax on dividends received.
Edwards said that reform would focus on the shareholders' portion. It could involve reducing tax rates to 20 percent, equal to the capital gains tax. (Investors currently pay their respective income tax rates, which run as high as 38.6 percent.)
The government could also set an individual exclusion of, say, 50 percent. If you got $1,000 in dividends from a company, that would mean paying taxes on only $500 of it.
Still another option would be establishing a dollar cut-off -- say, exempting the first $2,000 of dividends from taxation.
Expanding retirement contributions limits
Tax-advantaged retirement savings accounts, particularly the Roth IRA, might also be targets for reform, Edwards said.
The tax laws passed last year already had increased contribution limits for both types of accounts. In 2001, the maximum annual contribution allowed for any IRA was $2,000. The new laws increased that figure to $3,000 in 2002 and $5,000 by 2008. But Edwards said one possibility would be to increase the Roth IRA contribution limit to $5,000 next year, rather than phase in increases over time.
"Roth IRA funds come from after-tax money," Edwards said, implying that after-tax status made them plausible targets. "The change wouldn't cause a budget loss in the short-term, which would please those concerned about the deficit."
Bush might also push to raise the limits for deductible IRAs and 401(k)s, but that would be a tougher pill to swallow, since it would mean lost revenue for the government.
Increasing child tax credits
Parents who earn $110,000 a year or less in adjusted gross income ($75,000 for singles) can deduct $600 per child per year as part of the Child Tax Credit. (A credit is a dollar-for-dollar reduction of the taxes you owe.) One idea on the table, according to Greg Valliere, managing director of Schwab's Washington Research Group, would be increasing the credit to $1,000 per child per year.
Easing burden on investors
Investors suffering after three years of losses may also get a break, according to Martin Nissenbaum, national director of personal income tax planning at Ernst & Young. Currently, filers offset losses against gains. If losses exceed gains, you can deduct up to $3,000 per year in losses against ordinary income.
If you have even more losses, however, you must wait to use them in future tax years. The proposal, said Nissenbaum, probably will involve raising the limit from $3,000 to $8,250, enabling investors to use up losses at a more rapid clip.
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