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Markets & Stocks
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Angst about Alcoa
Aluminum maker's earnings snafu snares the Dow; Intel's comments unnerve Nasdaq.
January 8, 2003: 7:54 PM EST
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stocks could be primed for a bounce early Thursday after falling sharply Wednesday on Alcoa's weak profit report and Intel's dour comments, which amped up concerns about fourth-quarter results and technology spending

Thursday brings no meaningful profit reports. In economic news, investors will take in the weekly jobless claims, expected to show a dip to 392,000 from 403,000 the previous week

The Nasdaq composite (down 30.50 to 1401.07, Charts) fell 2.1 percent Wednesday, while the Dow Jones industrial average (down 145.28 to 8595.31, Charts) lost almost 1.7 percent and the S&P 500 index (down 13.00 to 909.93, Charts) shed around 1.4 percent.

Alcoa, the first Dow stock to report its results and the world's leading aluminum maker, stunned the market when it revealed earnings per share that were 36 percent below Wall Street's consensus estimate. Although the sector is hardly one that most market participants are looking to to lead stocks higher, the news had a big impact on the day's trading.

"Obviously, the Alcoa earnings did weigh very heavily on the Dow ... and there is an overwhelming feeling of disappointment as we move into earnings season," Jennifer Williams, a floor broker at Griswold Co., told CNNfn's Street Sweep.

"I would not be surprised to see the market up or down 50 or 100 points on any given day [over the next few weeks] based on the earnings news of the day," she added.

Technology stocks were shaken Wednesday by some discouraging forward-looking comments from a top Intel executive and a profit warning from PC maker Gateway. The two events seemed to trigger fears that the much-needed recovery in the semiconductor and computer hardware spaces may remain elusive for now.

Trading volume continued to show improvement from the sluggish late December through early January holiday period, but was still not in full swing. Market breadth was negative on the New York Stock Exchange, where declining stocks beat gainers by almost 5 to 3 as around 1.43 billion shares traded. On the Nasdaq, losers outpaced winners by more than 5 to 3 on volume of 1.43 billion shares.

Alcoa misses estimates

Alcoa (AA: down $2.53 to $21.85, Research, Estimates) reported a fourth-quarter profit of 16 cents a share, much less than the 25 cents a share Wall Street had been betting on, but a nickel more than the company earned a year earlier. The stock shed more than 10 percent. Alcoa cited lower aluminum prices and weak demand in key markets for its earnings woes.

"Obviously, Alcoa really disappointed the market today," said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Global Partners Securities. "But we've also had a big run-up since the start of the year, and considering that, I think stocks are holding up pretty well."

Most of the major corporate results for the December quarter will begin coming out next week. And analysts said Alcoa's dour surprise did not necessarily mean that the fourth quarter won't signal a turnaround in what has been a bleak profit picture over the past few years.

"The market is focused on fourth-quarter profits, particularly with no new international news to focus on right now," said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Global Partners Securities. "But I don't think this reaction to Alcoa means investors are now more worried about results. If you really count all the pre-announcements, they haven't been that negative. It's more that Alcoa was such a surprise."

Although a lot of the day's corporate news seem discouraging, compared to other recent quarters, profits don't look that bad. At the very least, the number of negative pre-announcements, or "warnings," is down.

According to First Call, the ratio of companies in the S&P 500 saying results will come in worse than expected to those that think they'll be better is 1.7. That's much lower than the 2.5 logged in the third quarter or the 2.4 in the fourth quarter of 2001.

Chip stocks slide

Shares of Intel fell, pressuring technology stocks, after a company executive at the No. 1 chipmaker told Reuters that Intel does not see any improvement in customer demand during the first half of the new year.

Although Intel (INTC: down $0.68 to $16.68, Research, Estimates) has already said it was not too optimistic about the immediate future, the statement just added to the pessimism already plaguing technology investors.

Merrill Lynch technology analyst Joe Osha issued a note saying that the semiconductor sector still looks expensive and that a snapback in demand for its products hasn't materialized yet.

Worries that a recovery in the struggling PC market has also not materialized yet were exacerbated by a profit warning from Gateway (GTW: down $0.21 to $2.96, Research, Estimates). The ailing company said late Tuesday that it would lose even more money than had been expected in the fourth quarter, due to weak holiday sales, a dispute with a partner and tough competition from larger and more successful rivals Dell Computer (DELL: down $0.33 to $28.32, Research, Estimates) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: down $0.45 to $19.50, Research, Estimates). Gateway's shares tumbled 7 percent.

Casino stocks were also cashed out. MGM Mirage (MGG: down $3.73 to $28.89, Research, Estimates) warned Wednesday that fourth-quarter results will widely miss analysts' estimates. The news came on the heels of Mandalay Bay's (MBG: down $3.78 to $27.01, Research, Estimates) warning late Tuesday that its fourth-quarter results will come short of expectations.

Both companies cited disappointing holiday revenue and less business from high rollers, an unsurprising result considering the struggling economy and rate of joblessness. MGM tanked more than 11 percent and Mandalay Bay was down almost 12 percent.

GM apt to cut pension returns

Shares of General Motors (GM: down $1.63 to $38.21, Research, Estimates) slid more than 4 percent, dragging on the Dow. The company said it will likely cut its rate of return on its pension fund from 10 percent to a lower figure, a move, to be announced Thursday, that will cause it to raise costs.

In addition to quarterly results news, shares of J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: down $1.07 to $26.77, Research, Estimates) and a number of telecommunications stocks declined on negative analyst notes.

UBS Warburg downgraded J.P. Morgan Chase to "hold" from "buy," citing the stock's valuation relative to the market and the firm's belief that the near-term outlook for investment banking activity is still pretty subdued.

Morgan Stanley also lowered its fourth-quarter and 2003 results forecast for J.P. Morgan, due to charges related to the firm's involvement with bankrupt energy trader Enron and other compensation costs.

UBS Warburg also downgraded Baby Bells Verizon (VZ: down $2.32 to $40.91, Research, Estimates) and BellSouth (BLS: down $1.27 to $27.65, Research, Estimates) to "reduce" from "hold," saying that Bell fundamentals are still weak and don't justify current price levels. Dow component SBC Communications (SBC: down $1.23 to $28.78, Research, Estimates), another Bell, fell more than 4 percent in sympathy.

In addition, market participants were still digesting the details of President Bush's $674 billion, 10-year economic stimulus plan, announced Tuesday afternoon. Among the details included: a speeding up of overall income tax reduction, new incentives for small businesses to expand, allocations for up to $3,000 in cash to help each unemployed person find work; and an end to taxation on dividend income.

Markets had rallied in anticipation of the plan, but stalled once it was finally announced.

"I think the market is taking a step back and assessing what's really going to happen with the stimulus package," Brian Belski, a market strategist at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, told CNNfn's Halftime Report.

Weakness in the retail sector sent European markets to a lower close. Asian-Pacific stocks finished mixed Wednesday, with Tokyo's Nikkei index down 1.6 percent but Taiwan and Hong Kong posting gains.

Treasury prices rose, with the 10-year note gaining 7/32 of a point in price, its yield down to 3.98 percent from 4.01 percent late Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. The dollar was much lower against the yen and a little weaker against the euro.

Light crude oil futures continued this week's retreat amid signs of an OPEC production increase, slipping 52 cents to $30.56 a barrel in New York.

Gold for February delivery gained $6.60 to $354.30 an ounce, also in New York trading. The price of gold can often move inversely to stocks, with investors who have taken money out of equities rotating it into the safer haven of commodities.  Top of page




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