NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Quick, what do former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and soon-to-be former AOL Time Warner Chairman Steve Case have in common?
They quit, stocks run higher.
Or at least that's what it looked like as traders marked down the minutes to the opening bell Monday. Word late Sunday that Case has decided to step down effective in May was pushing shares of AOL (AOL: Research, Estimates) up 4.4 percent in premarket trading, and higher stock index futures indicated the market, too, would be participating in the going-away bash. Shades of early December, when O'Neill's resignation took the edge off a bad employment report and sent stocks higher.
"I think it's positive," said Putnam Lovell head of equities Jack Baker of Case's resignation. "It should have happened a while ago."
Case had been under fire because the company's stock has tumbled sharply since the 2001 merger of America Online, which he co-founded in 1985, with Time Warner. With hindsight, many investors feel that Time Warner would have been better off if it had never listened to AOL's overtures. Although the official take at AOL Time Warner (which is the parent company of CNN/Money) is that Case left of his own accord, the sense among many investors is that he was pushed.
"There are a lot of people within and without the company who see him as a value destroyer," said Doug Kass, a hedge-fund manager with Seabreeze Partners who has a small short position in AOL. "He sucker punched Time Warner, its management, its board and its shareholders."
There was no announcement about who will succeed Case as chairman. Richard Parsons, the company's CEO, said in a statement to employees: "This decision, reached entirely on his own, is consistent with Steve's unwavering commitment to what he judges are the best interests of our company."
In a morning note, Credit Suisse First Boston forecast that shares of AOL likely would rise at the open, given the negative talk surrounding Case recently, but said the firm doesn't view the resignation as "significant in terms of strategic direction of the company or the way it is managed."
Kass, for one, thinks that the resignation is a negative signal, indicating that AOL Time Warner's online unit (the old AOL) will show a net reduction in subscribers when it reports results Jan. 29. "That's going to shake the Street," Kass said.
More oil
Although not really a surprise, OPEC's decision to boost crude production by 7 percent was a positive for the market. An oil field strike in Venezuela and the threat of war between the United States and Iraq have pushed oil prices higher, threatening to throw a damper on the global economy. Brent oil futures slipped 13 cents to $28.60 a barrel in London.
The Dow Jones industrial average is coming off a 183-point advance last week. That includes Friday's 9-point gain which came despite a disappointing decline in the number of Americans working last month. The Nasdaq composite index was up 61 points last week after gaining nine on Friday.
Asian-Pacific stocks ended higher Monday; Tokyo was closed for the Coming of Age holiday. European markets gained in early trading.
Treasury prices fell, sending the 10-year note yield up to 4.18 percent from 4.14 percent late Friday. The dollar edged higher against the euro, but slipped versus the yen.
In a morning note, Credit Suisse First Boston increased its rating on telecom equipment maker Qualcom (QCOM: Research, Estimates) to "neutral" from "underweight," saying that the firm thinks near-term fundamentals are intact and that the stock is approaching fair value. Shares of Qualcom fell 23 cents to $38.45 Friday.
CSFB downgraded Motorola (MOT: Research, Estimates) to "underweight" from "neutral" and cut its price target to $8 a share from $11, saying the fundamental risks outweigh the potential rewards at the current valuation. Shares of Motorola gained 3 cents to $9.93 Friday.
The firm also said it thinks entertainment and media stocks are likely to outperform the broader market in 2003, with advertising in an upturn mode.
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