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January sales uninspiring
But Wal-Mart, Target and J.C. Penney upbeat on profit forecasts; Sears warns, sales down 8%.
February 6, 2003: 1:18 PM EST
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Sales at U.S. discount chains Thursday saw little pickup in the post-holiday January period, typically a month of inventory clearance for merchants. But a few retail names still offered an upbeat outlook on the profit front.

"It was a mixed bag," said Bill Dreher, retail analyst with WR Hambrecht & Co. "What we got again, as we did in December, is this separation of winners and losers."

"Wal-Mart and Target continue to prove that they can operate well in this challenging retail environment and deliver profits despite modest to weak sales results," Dreher added.

Discount chain Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: up $0.44 to $47.18, Research, Estimates), the world's biggest retailer, said it expects to edge past Wall Street earnings forecasts for its fiscal year ended Jan. 31, despite a slowing in its sales gain. Target (TGT: down $0.51 to $27.36, Research, Estimates) said it was on track to meet its earnings target for the year, saying weak sales were offset by strength in its gross margins and credit card operations

Department store chain J.C. Penney (JCP: down $0.17 to $19.07, Research, Estimates)'s January same-store sales -- or sales at stores open at least a year -- fell 3.8 percent. But the company said it expects its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings will be at least 65 cents a share, compared with a Wall Street forecast for a 63-cent-a-share profit.

Most retailers operate on a fiscal year that ends in January.

Sears Roebuck & Co. (S: down $1.90 to $23.64, Research, Estimates), the nation's No. 2 general retailer, warned it expects to earn between 50 to 65 cents a share in the first quarter ending March 31, well below Wall Street's estimates of a profit of 87 cents a share. Sears also said its same-store sales fell 8 percent in January.

"It was really the department store chains and the apparel retailers that took it on the chin with weak January sales results," said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Consulting Group. "But a couple of names in those two groups are guiding higher than expected, predicated on expectations of lower promotional activity going into spring."

Industry watchers said retailers have been extremely careful with inventory, keeping stocks lean through the post holiday shopping period. Consumers kept a tight rein on spending amid fears of layoffs, a war with Iraq and a flailing economy.

"The companies that are seeing strong gross margin improvements are getting it not from improving their merchandising mix, but from improved buying," said Dreher. "Retailers like Wal-Mart and Target are lowering their cost of acquiring products. Sears on the other hand, continues to struggle with the turnaround of its department stores and problems with its credit card unit."

Wal-Mart sales up

Wal-Mart Stores said its sales at stores open at least a year increased 2.3 percent company-wide in the four-week period ended Jan. 31. Same-store sales at its core Wal-Mart unit gained 2.6 percent, while sales at its Sam's Club wholesale unit gained 0.9 percent. The increase is down from 8.3 percent in the year-earlier period. Overall sales rose 12.9 percent to $17.4 billion.

Two weeks ago the company said same-store sales were up in the 3 to 5 percent range for the Wal-Mart division and within the 2 to 4 percent range for the overall company during the first half of the month.

Still, Wal-Mart said it expects to report earnings of $1.80 a share for the recently completed fiscal year. Analysts surveyed by earnings tracker First Call had a consensus EPS forecast of $1.78, with estimates ranging from $1.77 to $1.80. Wal-Mart earned $1.49 a share a year earlier.

The company earned $1.24 a share in the first nine months of the just-completed fiscal year, meaning fourth-quarter earnings should be about 56 cents a share, a penny better than the First Call forecast of 55 cents, and up from 49 cents a year earlier.

Meanwhile, Sears said its sales at U.S. stores open at least a year fell 8 percent in the four-week period ended Feb. 2, compared to the year-earlier period. Overall U.S. sales fell 6.3 percent to $1.6 billion. Sears said the sales decline was within range of its plans, and expects to earn 50 to 65 cents a share in the first quarter, below analysts' estimates.

The retailer cited the "expected decrease in credit income and the effect of a later Easter holiday" for the earnings shortfall. Sears earned 93 cents a share excluding special items in the year-earlier period.

Federated Department Stores (FD: down $0.54 to $24.92, Research, Estimates), the operator of Macy's and Bloomingdale's among other department store chains, posted a 1.2 percent drop in January sales at stores open at least one year, at the lower end of its previous guidance of flat to down 2 percent for the month.

Specialty retailers on fire

Specialty apparel retailers put in a strong performance, buoyed by some of the teen-oriented chains such as The Gap, Pacific Sunwear, and Abercrombie & Fitch.

Sales at Gap (GPS: up $0.76 to $15.74, Research, Estimates) rose 16 percent in January. The company forecast fourth-quarter earnings of between 23 to 29 cents a share, above analysts' forecast for a 15-cent-a-share profit, according to earnings tracker First Call.

"Positive customer response to holiday product assortments across all brands helped drive momentum in the month and enabled us to clear merchandise at better markdown margins," said Sabrina Simmons, Gap vice president, treasury and investor relations. She said the company's Old Navy unit was the best performer for the month, with sales rising 27 percent compared with a 14 percent drop last year.

Pacific Sunwear (PSUN: down $0.42 to $17.60, Research, Estimates), a music-inspired teen apparel retailer, said its January same-store sales jumped 20.4 percent, and boosted its fourth-quarter profit forecast by a penny to 44 cents a share. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF: up $0.69 to $29.06, Research, Estimates) said January sales rose 3 percent from a year earlier, and expects to beat its previous fourth-quarter earnings guidance of between 86 and 88 cents a share. First Call estimates are for a profit of 87 cents a share.  Top of page


Chris Isidore, CNN/Money Senior Staff Writer contributed to this report




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.