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The (pay) envelope, please
'Chicago' gets 13 Oscar nominations, but only best picture, actress nods will boost box office.
March 10, 2003: 4:57 PM EST
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's more than an honor to be nominated for an Academy Award -- for movie studios, it's a payday.

Between Tuesday's announcement of this year's nominees and the awards program March 23, most of the films garnering the top award nominations will get additional screen time, and box office dollars, at the nation's multiplexes.

According to Randy Nelson, professor of economics at Colby College who did a study of the impact of nominations and awards, a nomination for Best Picture is worth about $7.8 million in additional box office for films that were first released in the fourth quarter of 2002 and that are still in theaters.

Miramax grabbed eight of the top 15 Oscar nominations Tuesday, including two for  
Miramax grabbed eight of the top 15 Oscar nominations Tuesday, including two for "Gangs of New York."

Films that grab Best Actor or Actress nominations will see about $750,000 in additional box office for each of those nominations, assuming the film was released in the fourth quarter.

The studio best positioned to benefit from nominations this year is Walt Disney Co. (DIS: Research, Estimates) unit Miramax, which has or shares eight of the top award nominations for its films, giving it a majority of the contenders for the top three awards.

Miramax's "Chicago" was the top nominee with 13 nominations, including Best Picture and Best Actress for star Renee Zellweger, although Richard Gere missed out on a nomination for Best Actor, an award he won at the Golden Globes. "Gangs of New York" also got two key nominations -- Best Picture and Best Actor for star Daniel Day-Lewis. Two of its lower profile, low budget films got top acting nominations -- Michael Caine for "The Quiet American" and Salma Hayek for "Frida". And "The Hours" -- which it shares with Viacom (VIA: Research, Estimates) unit Paramount Pictures, got a Best Picture and Best Actress nomination for Nicole Kidman.

Vivendi Universal (V: Research, Estimates) was a distant second to Disney with three top nominations -- a Best Picture and Best Actor nomination for "The Pianist" from its Focus Features unit, and a Best Actress nomination for Julianne Moore for "Far From Heaven."

 
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New Line Cinema grabbed two nominations -- Best Actor for its "About Schmidt" star Jack Nicholson and a Best Picture for "Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers," a sequel to the movie that garnered a nomination last year as well. New Line is a unit of AOL Time Warner (AOL: Research, Estimates), as is CNN/Money.

Sony (SNY: Research, Estimates) and Fox (FOX: Research, Estimates) got one nomination each -- for Best Actress for Diane Lane in Sony's "Unfaithful" and for Best Actor for Nicolas Cage in Fox's "Adaptation."

Winning helps even more

Winning the awards means an even larger payday -- an additional $16 million for the Best Picture winner, and $5.6 million for the film with the Best Actor or Actress. But for the next six weeks, just the nomination will be enough to get additional money.

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"The nominations gives it legs -- it stays in theaters longer, and it gets on more screens," Nelson said.

Industry executives agree with Nelson's general impression, even if they can't quantify the precise numbers the way he has.

"There is a 'Good Housekeeping seal of approval' that goes with the nomination," said one studio executive with several Oscar contenders on his lineup, who spoke on the condition his name not be used.

While a few extra millions don't hurt, they can seem modest in a world where it's not uncommon for films to cost more than $100 million and opening weekend box offices also can approach nine figures. Thus the Oscar can actually be even more important to the small-budget film, according to the studio executive and other experts.

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CNNfn's Jen Rogers takes a closer look at what an Oscar nomination can mean for a movie studio and an actor.

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"At these [dollar] levels a nomination is not going to be enough to turn a big-budget dog into a success. But on a little film, it can make all the difference in the world," said Kevin Hagopian, lecturer in media studies at Penn State University.

Nelson said even if his estimates of the Oscar boost seem small compared with total box office, they are financially important to the studios.

"This is incremental revenue we're talking about," he said.

Lesser nominations have little boost

Nelson said the other awards, such as Best Supporting Actor or Actress or Best Director, surprisingly result in virtually no additional box office for those films.

"Theater owners are scrambling to get the Best Picture nominees or the big stars," said Nelson. "If your film only gets a supporting actor or actress nomination, you can get squeezed out."

The studio executive said he agrees that the lesser nominations don't help on their own, but if it inflates the number of overall nominations a Best Picture nominee receives, it can help those film's marketing campaigns over the next six weeks.

"A large number of those types of nominations can suggest that the film is well made," he said.

Nelson said that the impact is far less for nominated films if they were released earlier in 2002. A film released in the first quarter would see an average $673,000 boost from a best picture nomination, and $2.7 million more from a win. A first-quarter release would see only about $19,000 more from a Best Actor or Actress nomination and about $750,000 more from a win in one of those categories.

But while there clearly is much more of an upside from holding potential Oscar-worthy movies back for a late-year release, there also is a risk for the studios if they follow that strategy.

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"There is always a danger in basing everything on Academy Award nominations," the studio executive said. "There are films this year that may not receive the box office success their distributors hoped for due to a crowded Oscar field. You can get burned in a crowded marketplace."

Nelson's study looked at domestic box office only, not additional overseas revenue or the video and DVD sales and rentals that the films get because of their nominations. He said those revenue streams also can be enhanced by Oscar, although the boost from garnering only the nomination and not the statue is far more limited.

Click here for a look at media and entertainment stocks

"The bounce from a nomination lasts just until the awards are announced," he said.  Top of page




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