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Blame game misses cool items
Retailers cite the war, a late Easter and the lame economy, but they can't find the Next Big Thing.
April 4, 2003: 4:41 PM EST
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - They blame the weather, the economy, the Easter Bunny and Saddam Hussein. But the nation's leading retailers may have another reason for slumping sales: There's nothing cool to buy.

"A terrible problem for retailers is that most stores are evoking yawns from consumers, instead of excitement," said Kurt Barnard, a veteran retail consultant. "Retailers just can't keep making the mistake of taking customers for granted by selling ho-hum kind of merchandise. Consumers are looking for unusual and exciting products and they're not finding them."

Maybe that's the real reason that retail sales haven't recuperated from last year's dismal Christmas performance and the snowstorms that froze sales over the Presidents Day holiday in February.

“ A terrible problem for retailers is that most stores are evoking yawns from consumers instead of excitement. ”
Kurt Barnard, Barnard's Retail Consulting Group.

With this year's late Easter, March is pretty much a washout and merchants are counting on April sales to make up for weak showings in March. But industry experts note the war in Iraq and the sluggish economy could muddy that picture as well.

While they may be worried about their jobs, consumers do have money to spend, said Kazuto Uchida, chief economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

And if the war in Iraq ends relatively quickly, falling energy prices could spur consumer spending on a host of discretionary items such as clothing, shoes and electronic gear. Consumer spending is key not only for retailers -- it also fuels more than two-thirds of the nation's total economy.

But like last year, consumer trend experts are hard pressed to find merchants offering "must-have" items that are enticing people to spend money.

There are exceptions. Analysts cite Sharper Image (SHRP: up $0.11 to $18.26, Research, Estimates) and Brookstone (BKST: up $0.05 to $16.80, Research, Estimates), two companies that sell unusual gadgets and gizmos, to illustrate their point.

Sharper Image saw sales at stores open at least a year, a key measure known as same-store sales, jump 24 percent in February and said its forecast for first quarter growth in the mid-teens "is still reasonable."

Brookstone posted a fourth-quarter profit this month of $3.17 a share, up 20 percent from a year ago, while same-store sales rose 7.8 percent. The company cited product innovation.

"These two companies give a must-have lesson for all retailers. Shaper Image has seen sales jump in the double-digits because they keep innovating and offering new, fun and useful products," said Barnard.

Money manager Shawn Kravetz said specialty women's apparel retailer Chico's FAS (CHS: up $0.50 to $22.10, Research, Estimates) is a survivor in the otherwise battered women's wear retail sector. The Fort Myers, Fla.-based chain caters to women generally 35 or older.

"February was a disastrous month for most apparel retailers but Chico's still generated 5 percent same-store sales," said Kravetz. "In a good month, that would make others jealous. So this is extraordinary performance."

"Chico's has new things all the time in its stores and it's built a very loyal customer base," said Kravetz. Kravetz owns the stock personally and in the hedge fund he runs, Esplanade Capital, but declined to elaborate on his holdings.

War's in Iraq but real battle is the economy

Industry experts said it's not just Iraq but a confluence of factors that has put American consumers into a "bunker mentality." U.S. consumer confidence is at its lowest level in more than nine years.

"The bigger issue for the entire retail space is that we have a weak economy, unemployment is rampant, corporate spending is down and corporate earnings are not improving," said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting firm Davidowitz & Associates.

Chris Kim, associate specialty analyst with J.P. Morgan, said weak merchandise offerings combined with the sluggish economy, as well as the war in Iraq, will all take their toll on retail results, particularly at specialty clothing chains.

"April is expected to be better (than March) but there's not much clarity at the moment about that," he said. But "sales in April may not be stellar," he added. "Americans will probably steer clear of malls and stay home."

Kim expects April same-store sales for the group he follows to tumble 15 to 20 percent. "But it could be worse," he added.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: up $0.55 to $54.60, Research, Estimates), the world's biggest retailer, warned this week that it expects March same-store sales will be at the low end of its previous estimate for growth in the low-single digits, citing a late Easter and 24-hour TV coverage of the war, which has kept Americans away from shopping malls. Last year Wal-Mart saw gains of 3.5 percent in March store sales and 3.3 percent in April.

Federated Department Stores (FD: up $0.07 to $28.39, Research, Estimates), which owns Macy's and Bloomingdale's, also cut its March sales estimate to a decline of 6 to 7 percent from an earlier forecast of a drop of 3 to 4 percent, versus a 0.2 percent dip a year earlier.

J.C. Penney (JCP: up $0.17 to $20.29, Research, Estimates) said it expects March sales at its department stores open at least a year to be "soft," coming in little changed to down slightly, compared with a 6.8 percent gain in March and a 5.5 percent gain in April last year.

Last year, big retailers saw same-store sales rise 6.4 percent in March and 1.6 percent in April, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Uchida. His forecast for this year: flat to up 1 percent in March and a 1 to 2 percent April gain.

"As someone once said, 'It's the economy, stupid!'" Barnard said. But, he added, specialty retailers "have seen sales plummet like hard lead because they're not giving consumers exciting products that they won't be able to resist."  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.