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Stocks see through worry
U.S. markets end higher despite jitters about the economy, earnings as war becomes less of a focus.
April 10, 2003: 5:51 PM EDT
By Meghan Collins, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. stocks managed to pull off gains Thursday, after being torn between positive and negative territory throughout the day, as investors shifted their focus away from the war in Iraq and back to a weak economy at home.

The broad market managed to score small gains after logging declines in the previous session. The Dow Jones industrial average (up 23.39 to 8221.33, Charts) rose 0.3 percent, while the Nasdaq composite (up 8.87 to 1365.61, Charts) and the S&P 500 index (up 5.59 to 871.58, Charts) each closed 0.7 percent higher.

All three markets are down for the week, so far. The Nasdaq needs about 18 points Friday to turn positive for the week, while the Dow would have to log about 56 points and the S&P would have to rise 8 points.

"Basically we're trading sideways until there's an indication of corporate spending and of earnings picking up," said Ram Kolluri, chief investment officer at GlobalValue Investors. "Institutional investors are buying and selling, but the individual investor is still on the sidelines."

With U.S. forces controlling a larger percentage of Baghdad, and with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein nowhere to be found -- and possibly dead -- after a U.S. bombing of a building he was believed to be in, Wall Street decided to trade on news from home and concentrate on things like the economy and corporate earnings, neither of which is in great shape.

Many in the market have speculated that once the uncertainty of war is removed, the picture will be clearer and growth will be almost guaranteed as businesses and consumers become less afraid to spend. The market appears to have gotten over the fact that the first-quarter earnings reporting season will likely be disappointing and that the second quarter probably won't show much improvement -- and investors are trying to look forward.

"The war phase in Iraq seems to be winding down," said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones. "I think in the months ahead consumer confidence will improve. It's a mistake to just look at the short term. I think it's more important to think about the third and fourth quarters."

But with the war winding down, the long East Coast winter finally nearing its end, and Easter shopping week just around the corner, many of the excuses for the weak economy are disappearing. The signs of weakness are not.

With war concerns headed farther and father into the background, some key economic reports and first-quarter earnings results could affect trading Friday.

The Labor Department plans to release the producer price index for March before the opening bell. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect the index, a key gauge of inflation, rose 0.3 percent, compared with a 1 percent gain in February. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to come in flat after a 0.5 percent decline in February.

Investors also likely will eye March retail sales numbers, also due before the start of trading. Overall sales are expected to rise by 0.6 percent versus February's 1.6 percent drop. Excluding autos, economists forecast a rise of 0.4 percent, compared with February's 1 percent decline.

Economists expect the University of Michigan's initial consumer sentiment index reading for April, due at 9:45 a.m. ET Friday, to have risen to 79 from 77.6 in March.

And, on the earnings front, General Electric (GE: up $0.08 to $27.38, Research, Estimates) is set to report results before the trading session opens. Analysts, on average, expect the company earned 32 cents a share in the first quarter, down from 35 cents in the same period last year.

Economy, earnings fears renewed

So far, three companies have warned that their first-quarter earnings would fall below estimates for every one that has guided higher.

"Earnings estimates are really, really weak -- and the focus really is earnings," GlobalValue's Kolluri said. "In October, a rosy picture was painted for 2003. Now people are saying the second half will be good. I'm very, very leery about the economic condition. Come July, August, I'm afraid the earnings estimates will be cut."

Meanwhile, some 405,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 5, compared with a revised 443,000 the prior week. While better than expected, the number still hovered above the 400,000 mark, which signals a shrinking labor market. The last time weekly jobless claims were below 400,000 was in the week of Feb. 8.

Retailers were among those using the long winter/late Easter/"CNN effect" excuse, blaming weak sales in March on the calendar and events from halfway around the world.

The world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart (WMT: up $0.88 to $54.58, Research, Estimates), said sales at stores open at least a year, a closely watched retail measure known as same-store sales, edged up only 0.7 percent in the five weeks ended April 4. The company had forecast percentage growth in same-store sales in the low single digits.

No. 2 Sears Roebuck & Co. (S: up $1.32 to $26.55, Research, Estimates) reported a 2.3 percent decline in overall same-store sales, yet its stock rose more than 4 percent. Federated Department Stores (FD: up $0.81 to $28.95, Research, Estimates), which operates a number of well-known chains, including Macy's and Bloomingdale's, posted a 6.5 percent decline.

The broad market logged declines Wednesday after sinking in the last hour of trading as jitters about the state of the economy, consumer confidence and corporate spending got a tight hold on investors.

Among stocks that moved because of earnings news, Internet portal Yahoo! (YHOO: up $1.40 to $24.27, Research, Estimates) advanced more than 6 percent after it delivered earnings of 8 cents a share late Wednesday, two pennies above expectations and four times what it earned a year earlier. The Goldman Sachs Internet Index saw strong gains, rising 4.8 percent.

Some tech stocks, including computer marker Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: up $0.21 to $15.57, Research, Estimates) and No. 1 chip maker Intel (INTC: up $0.20 to $16.88, Research, Estimates), also showed strength on the Dow.

Market breadth was slightly positive. On the Nasdaq, advancers edged past decliners on volume of 1.2 billion shares. On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers held a 9-to-7 advantage over losers, as 1.2 billion shares changed hands.

U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with the 10-year note slipping 13/32 of a point in price to yield 3.94 percent. The dollar fell against the yen but remained steady against the euro.

Oil prices fell, with light sweet crude for May delivery losing $1.39 to $27.46 a barrel in New York. But gold for June delivery managed to gain $1.10 an ounce to $327.30.

European stock markets closed the day lower. Asian stocks finished their overnight trading session mixed.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.